Diamondbacks’ path to the postseason: What it will take to secure a Wild Card spot

Arizona Diamondbacks Randal Grichuk (15) reacts with third base coach Tony Perezchica (21) after hitting a two-run home run against the New York Mets in the third inning at Chase Field in Phoenix on Aug. 29, 2024.

With less than a month left in the 2024 MLB season, the Arizona Diamondbacks have 28 games remaining as they vie for a second consecutive postseason appearance. If successful, it would mark their first back-to-back October appearances since 2001 and 2002.

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Following their loss to the New York Mets on Thursday and the Dodgers’ win over the Orioles, the Diamondbacks are now four games behind Los Angeles in the NL West. In the National League Wild Card race, Arizona holds a three-game lead and a one-game advantage over the Padres for the top Wild Card spot.

Although the gap in the Wild Card race has widened recently, there is still ample time for teams on the outside to make a move. The Mets are three games back, the Cubs are five games behind, and the Cardinals are six games back. The St. Louis Cardinals trail by 6.5 games.

So, what would need to happen for the Diamondbacks to make the postseason?

First, let’s consider the remaining strength of schedule for the seven teams vying for the three Wild Card spots:

1. San Francisco Giants (.536)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (.527)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (.502)
4. New York Mets (.499)
5. Atlanta Braves (.495)
6. San Diego Padres (.492)
7. Chicago Cubs (.490)

Predicting the exact final records for these teams is challenging. However, by examining current standings and strength of schedule, we can estimate Arizona’s “magic number.”

Assuming the Giants, who are 6.5 games behind and have one of the toughest remaining schedules, are out of contention, and considering the Padres are likely a postseason lock due to their strong performance since the All-Star break and easier schedule, we focus on the remaining five teams competing for the final two spots.

If the Diamondbacks maintain their current .567 winning percentage, they would need to win 16 of their final 28 games to secure a postseason berth. Here’s what the other teams would need to do to catch up to Arizona if the Diamondbacks reach that target:

• St. Louis Cardinals: Win 25 of their final 28 games
• Chicago Cubs: Win 24 of their final 28 games
• New York Mets: Win 23 of their final 28 games

Given these scenarios, it seems unlikely that other teams could surpass the Diamondbacks if Arizona stays on their current pace. So, how can the Diamondbacks win 16 of their remaining 28 games?

Here’s a hypothetical breakdown of their remaining series:

• 2-2 against Dodgers
• 2-1 against Giants
• 1-2 against Astros
• 1-1 against Rangers
• 1-2 against Milwaukee
• 3-0 against Rockies
• 2-2 against Milwaukee
• 2-1 against Giants
• 2-1 against Padres

As you can see, it is completely doable. Even in this scenario, the Diamondbacks would just need to win four of their final nine series while tying two others. If they manage to do so, unless either the Cubs, Cardinals, or Mets go on a historical run, the Diamondbacks will be looking at another trip to the postseason, this time, with experience in their pockets.