While the Diamondbacks’ position in the National League Wild Card race was not dire, it was far from secure as they approached the trade deadline, aiming to bolster their roster for a second consecutive postseason push.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!At the time of the deadline, the D-backs had a 55% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. Now, a month later, that probability has surged to 98%, thanks to their impressive performance since late July.
ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle recently evaluated the impact of trade deadline acquisitions on teams’ win probabilities. The Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Dodgers have fared the best, each gaining over +1 WPA (Win Probability Added) from their trades.
Early on, the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Dodgers have fared the best, with both teams gaining over +1 WPA from their deadline moves.
In a category labeled “Four Contenders That Helped Themselves,” the Diamondbacks are noted for adding .57 WPA through their deadline moves. Doolittle commented “The Arizona deadline looked very straightforward a month ago, and it still does. A.J. Puk was brought in as a jolt to the bullpen and he’s been outstanding (0.69 ERA, 0.94 FIP over 15 outings). Dylan Floro (5.79) has struggled in a lower-leverage role. And streaky Josh Bell had some nice moments early but since has cooled. Christian Walker is due back soon from his oblique problem, so Arizona should be fine even if Bell doesn’t catch fire again.”
The Diamondbacks were placed in the same group as the Yankees, Padres, and Phillies.
In contrast, teams categorized as having a “bad deadline” include the Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, and Pittsburgh Pirates.
