The Diamondbacks will have a chance to earn a series split against the New York Mets at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 10:40 A.M. MST.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!A split didn’t seem likely after New York took the first two games, both by just one run. A win would salvage two wins on a road trip that started 0-4. However, the Diamondbacks were able to rediscover their offense in the last two games. While splitting the two games, they scored 19 runs in those two games and started slugging the ball more. On Saturday, they were able to add speed and baserunning to the offensive formula to trouble the Mets, a team that has had trouble with basestealers in 2024.
In order to secure the split, they’ll need another strong start from right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt, despite carrying a season ERA of 4.16, is making the next steps in his development as starting pitcher. He’s been a reliable workhorse for the Diamondbacks, averaging more than six innings per start and pitching no fewer than five in a single start. Advanced metrics all paint Pfaadt as a better pitcher than his current ERA, with a 3.24 FIP, 3.65 xFIP, and 2.88 xERA. Expect his ERA to regress closer to those numbers as his left on base rate (LOB%) improves from the 60.7% he’s currently at toward the league average of 71.7%.
What’s worked for Pfaadt this season has been his ability to reduce the amount of loud contact. While his strikeout rate hasn’t significantly jumped compared to last season, he’s reduced the amount of barrels and home runs. While not necessarily getting a lot of whiffs, he’s been able to limit the amount of loud contact and has found a way to avoid barrels. His 4.6% barrel rate ranks in the 83rd percentile amongst qualified major league pitchers. With the reduction in quality of contact to go with a microscopic 4.4% walk rate, it’s pretty clear that Pfaadt is the type of pitcher who doesn’t beat himself on the mound.
Starting for the Mets is left-hander José Quintana. Quintana is off to a miserable season with the Mets, sporting a career-low 15.4% strikeout rate and batters have had little issue squaring up his pitches. When he’s going good, he’s able to spot the four-seamer in on right-handed hitters and work his other pitches away from them. He’s above-average at avoiding barrels, largely due to a solid 46% ground ball rate.
Starting Lineups
Game Notes
Diamondbacks
- The Diamondbacks stole a total of four bases against the Mets in their 10-5 win on Saturday. It was the first time they recorded that total as a team since September 29, 2023. Last season, they recorded four or more stolen bases in 11 of their games with a record of 9-2.
- Pfaadt recorded five straight quality starts from April 28 to May 21. He has pitched at least six innings in each of his last six starts, and eight of 11 this season.
- Much of the Diamondbacks’ starting lineup has good career numbers against Quintana. Eugenio Suárez is 8-for-25 with a home run, Kevin Newman is 10-for-21, and Ketel Marte is 4-for-11 with a double.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is back in the lineup after being scratched from Saturday’s starting lineup after battling a cold.
Mets
- Quintana is 0-2 with a 7.53 ERA in six career starts against the Diamondbacks.
- First baseman Pete Alonso has had a strong series against the Diamondbacks, going 4-for-10 with a home run, three doubles, three runs scored, and three RBI. In fact, he’s recorded a double and a run scored in each of the first three games of the series.
Bullpen Situation
Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks bullpen is a bit thin after needing a lot of relievers to get the final 13 outs on Saturday. Brandon Hughes is unavailable for this game after throwing 43 pitches at the end of the game. Right-hander Kevin Ginkel is “day-to-day” with a left knee contusion, although manager Torey Lovullo expressed optimism about his availability for this game. Paul Sewald needed to throw three pitches to get the final out on Saturday, so that could have an effect on him although he hadn’t pitched since May 25. Bryce Jarvis threw 29 pitches in 1 1/3 innings, so he might only be available for one inning, if at all.
Mets
Josh Walker threw 51 pitches, so he’s unavailable for the Mets. Left-hander Danny Young has pitched in two of the last three days. The rest of their bullpen should otherwise be available to pitch in this game.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks and Arizona Cardinals for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
