The Phoenix Suns wrap up group-stage action in the Emirates NBA Cup against the San Antonio Spurs tonight, and have multiple scenarios in which they would advance to the next round with a win and other results going in their favor.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Last year in the In-Season Tournament, Phoenix advanced to the knockout stage by finishing No. 2 with a 3-1 group play record behind the Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams faced each other in the next round before the Lakers won 106-103. Los Angeles went on to win the whole tournament.
The Suns this season have the Lakers again, the Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder and Utah Jazz in their group.
Here is how the Group B standings currently look:
- San Antonio Spurs: 2-1 record | +14 score differential | Beat Thunder for head-to-head tiebreaker
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 2-1 | +18 | Beat Suns for head-to-head tiebreaker
- Phoenix Suns: 2-1 | +19
- Los Angeles Lakers: 2-2 | -24
- Utah Jazz: 0-3 | -27
This tournament consists of six total groups that are divided into three in the Western Conference and three in the Eastern Conference. Each team that finishes first in a group advances and one wild card spot from each conference rounds out eight teams who will compete in the knockout stage.
The Suns will need to beat the Spurs to advance no matter what, but will see how things shake up when the Thunder take on the Jazz. A Phoenix win and a Jazz victory would be the most favorable scenario that happens for the Suns to top the group.
Even though any team can win on any given night, it is unlikely to assume that the Jazz will help the Suns tonight with a win, however. Oklahoma City is 15-4 and looking like one of the best teams in the NBA while the Jazz are 4-14 and heading in the opposite direction towards the bottom of the standings.
If both the Suns and Thunder win, Oklahoma City would top the group since it has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix after beating the Suns 99-83 on Nov. 15. Phoenix did not have Kevin Durant or Bradley available due to injuries.
What makes this night even more intriguing is that there is a path where the Spurs could win Group B since they have the head-to-head tiebreaker over OKC. On Nov. 19, seven of the 10 Spurs who played against the Thunder scored in double digits as San Antonio defeated Oklahoma City 110-104.
The Suns could still make it beyond group play but the route will be challenging. The Thunder would lock up the No. 1 seed in the group, then the Suns need to win, improve on their point differential, hope other teams that they need to lose do so and have a lower score differential than Phoenix.
For Suns fans, pay attention to both the Portland Trail Blazers vs. the Los Angeles Clippers and the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks games, as they would be most likely the two results that will determine Phoenix’s wild card fate. The Blazers (Group A) and Mavericks (Group C) are both 2-1 and in contention with the Suns. Both the Grizzlies and the Clippers are eliminated from advancement with 1-2 records.
If Portland and Phoenix both win, their records would both be 3-1, but the Blazers’ point differential is -5 and would need to blowout the Clippers to catch up to the Suns’ +19. Unless the Blazers completely destroy the Clippers and the Suns narrowly win, Phoenix shouldn’t worry too much about Portland.
Phoenix’s biggest target, however, is Dallas. The Golden State Warriors (3-0) clinched Group C with a 120-117 win over the Mavericks, so Dallas does not have the head-to-head tiebreaker. The reason why the Mavericks are in the driver’s seat for the wild card position is because they have the second biggest point differential in the Western Conference, +41.
A Dallas win would make them 3-1, and still have a score differential of over 40. The Suns would need to destroy the Spurs, and hope the Mavericks win by a small margin to make up ground on the differential.
While there is a realistic possibility the Suns improve to 3-1 and still miss the cut, they just have to win tonight and let things play out.
The Suns and Spurs clash tonight at 7 p.m. MST inside Footprint Center.
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Reporter Alec Cipollini covers the Phoenix Mercury, Suns and ASU Athletics for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on his X account, @AlecCipollini
