With the first two nights of the 2024 MLB Draft complete, it is time to reevaluate the Diamondbacks and the top prospects in their farm system. Two of the four players they selected on the first night of the draft are new additions to this Top 10 list.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Each player will be given a grade for their Future Value (FV). Future value is set to a 20-80 scale, or 2-8 if you’re not into half-grades, with 50 being a major league average starter at their position. A grade given today is merely an assessment of current risk and upside and is not final. With new information and more performances to evaluate, grades can change.
1. SS Jordan Lawlar (55)
Lawlar’s 2024 season has been wiped out due to a litany of injuries. He ruptured the UCL in his right thumb at the end of spring, missing two months after undergoing surgery. In his first series back with Triple-A Reno he suffered a relatively minor hamstring strain and was on a rehab assignment just three weeks later. It was then in his second rehab stint that he suffered a setback running the bases.
What was originally supposed to be a season where he worked his way into the everyday shortstop role has been pushed back one year. He has an advanced approach at the plate, although he didn’t necessarily show it in his first stint in the big leagues, with more than enough defensive skill to stick at the position.
It’s still only a matter of time before he takes over the shortstop position over Geraldo Perdomo, likely moving the latter into a utility infielder role. However, it will take Lawlar having a healthy season before that possibility reaches even a discussion with the major league coaching staff and front office.
2. CF Druw Jones (50)
Jones’ 2023 season was wiped out due to injuries, but 2024 has served as a good basis to get reps in. He’s been healthy all year, hitting .275 with five home runs and a .805 OPS. Part of that OPS is boosted by a 15.5% walk rate translating into a .391 on-base percentage, but the walk rate has stayed constant with the strikeout rate continuing to drop.
The main concern with Jones is his swing and the issues with his feet in the box. He tends to fire the back foot out of control, much like his father late in his career, leaving him vulnerable to certain pitches. The biggest key in his development as a hitter is to be able to turn on inside pitches while not leaving himself vulnerable to sliders down and away.
At the end of the day, he’s an elite defensive center fielder with the potential to put up a 25/25 season in the future. He’s the best defensive player in the organization, including the guys on the major league club. Adding walks, speed, and power to that combination gives Jones the potential to be the type of player who can make a ginormous impact for the Diamondbacks in the long term.
3. 3B Tommy Troy (50)
Troy has missed much of the season with a hamstring injury. He just got back from that at the start of July and is pretty much almost guaranteed to go to the Arizona Fall League to catch up on two and a half months of lost reps.
His swing is geared towards attacking elevated fastballs and hitting them gap-to-gap, leaving him a bit vulnerable to high-quality sliders. That’s not a weakness unique to just him, as most right-handed hitters wouldn’t do much better on similar pitches.
Originally on the fast track to the major leagues, the injury has at least slowed down that possibility for at least a full season. He’s been getting reps at shortstop with High-A Hillsboro but is projected to move off the position to third base, or even the outfield, with Lawlar and Perdomo ahead of him.
4. RHP Cristian Mena (50)
Mena debuted with the Diamondbacks on July 3 but was very erratic after having the dubious task of making his major league debut in Dodger Stadium. It was a one-and-done trial for the right-hander, who was dropped in favor of Yilber Diaz.
Mena has added more velocity to his vertical-shaped fastball, now sitting in the mid-90s, and complements that with a plus curveball in the mid-80s with very sharp and late break. He also has a hard sweeping slider, in the upper 80s, and a firm changeup in the low-90s. He has a power arsenal that could play either as a middle of the rotation arm or in the bullpen, depending on how much the command develops.
It’s unlikely he’ll be tasked with starting another meaningful MLB game in 2024, but seeing him handle his trial by fire debut fairly well from a mental standpoint leads me to believe he has the makeup to eventually become a No. 3 or 4 starter.
5. RHP Yilber Diaz (45)
Diaz has been a fast riser in the Diamondbacks system in 2024. Control had been an issue in the past, but it has taken a major step forward this season. With a power arsenal that includes a 94-98 MPH four-seamer with carry, a slider, and a knuckle curve, he has the potential to carry three potential plus quality pitches.
Having endured more adversity to get his career started, including doing jobs on the street in foreign countries to make ends meet, the grind through the minor leagues has been less difficult. In his first two MLB starts, he’s shown the ability to stay calm under pressure and keep a stoic demeanor on the mound. That mound presence lends well for his ability to stick as a starter long term, even if he’ll likely throw some clunkers in the future.
The key for Diaz to improve his arsenal is to continue to tighten up the slider and more consistent horizontal break on the pitch. He’ll have until the end of the month to showcase his abilities. If he continues to pitch well through the end of the month, he will force the Diamondbacks to make a tough decision when Merrill Kelly and Eduardo RodrÃguez are set to come off the injured list next month.
6. 2B Jansel Luis (45)
Luis can be somewhat of a polarizing prospect, but worthy of a Top 10 spot given his upside as a hitter. He has a great feel for barreling up pitches but also chases a lot out of the strike zone. That’s how you get a guy who is hitting .280 with 29 extra-base hits but also a 22.4% strikeout rate in Low-A.
One anecdote from Spring Training is he got an at-bat against Brewers reliever J.B. Bukauskas. He took a 1-1 sinker out over the plate and hit a hard line drive down the left field line for a double.
Luis is very young, having just turned 19 before the start of the season. He has a projectable frame that will lead to more home run power in the future. A switch-hitting middle infielder with a projectable frame is going to naturally draw Ketel Marte comparisons, but Marte also had the ideal frame to add muscle to when he joined the Diamondbacks in 2017.
7. CF Slade Caldwell (45)
Caldwell was the Diamondbacks’ top pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. He fits their mold for high draft pick prep bats, a shorter stature guy whose athletic and has a lot of tools to bring to the table. He has a simple swing that projects to about average game power, but in the cavernous Chase Field outfield could rack up a lot of hustle doubles and triples like Corbin Carroll.
His build is much closer to Daulton Varsho than Corbin Carroll, with a sturdy lower half that should help generate natural power as he matures more as a hitter. He profiles for a center field role, but if he shares an outfield with Carroll and Jones is a candidate to move to a corner where he’ll have plus range.
8. RHP Dylan Ray (45)
The Diamondbacks took a chance on a pitcher whose college season was affected by Tommy John surgery in the fall of 2020. Arizona bought in on him after a solid showing at the Cape in the summer of 2022 and it has been a solid gamble.
Ray missed the first two and a half months of the season with elbow trouble but returned to Amarillo in June. He features a low-90s fastball that tops out at 96 MPH with a curveball, slider, and splitter. The splitter is the best secondary pitch in his arsenal, which doesn’t feature a plus quality offering.
His ability to command a full four-pitch mix enough to throw consistent strikes has him profiling as a safe bottom of the rotation pitcher, although having an elbow injury adds more risk. He’s a candidate to go to the Fall League to make up for some lost reps and try to be ready for a possible late 2025 debut.
9. 1B Gino Groover (45)
Groover is another Diamondbacks prospect who would have been on the fast track but missed a lot of time due to an injury. Just two weeks into his season, he fractured his left wrist in a collision with a baserunner at first base. He’s currently rehabbing at the complex league at the time of this writing.
Groover has exceptional barrel control, which allows him to consistently hit baseballs hard without sacrificing his ability to make contact. His gap-to-gap approach will lead to a lot of doubles and some occasional triples at Chase Field, although he could develop into a 20-homer, 40-double bat in the middle of the Diamondbacks lineup.
Arizona is getting him reps at third base, although depending on what happens at the position may end up moving to first base. He is relatively new to the position, having been put out there for the first time his draft year by North Carolina State. If he ends up moving across the diamond, he has the range and hands to play high-level defense at first.
10. LF Ryan Waldschmidt (45)
Waldschmidt was the Diamondbacks’ second selection of the 2024 draft, with the pick they picked up from Corbin Carroll’s Rookie of the Year Award. An outfielder who shows good speed, feel to hit, and power, he profiles as a corner outfielder with all the center field types in the team’s farm system.
He broke out in his junior season with Kentucky, hitting .333 with 14 home runs, a 1.079 OPS, and 25 stolen bases. A third baseman converted to an outfielder, his defense is a work in progress. However, given his speed and quickness, he’s the type of player who could blossom under Dave McKay’s tutelage if he can get up to the big leagues fast enough before the legendary coach retires.
As a right-handed bat, he balances out the left-handed heavy outfield at the top of Arizona’s system and major league roster.
Other 45 FV Prospects: CF Jorge Barrosa, LHP Yu-Min Lin, SS Cristofer Torin, SS JD Dix
With the 10th ranked player given a 45 grade, I decided to add the rest of the players with the same grade in the Diamondbacks system.
Jorge Barrosa is a major league-ready fourth outfielder who plays well in the field with an exceptional batting eye and underlying power in a 5’5″ frame.
Lin missed two months after getting struck with a foul ball, but had rose near the top of the team’s farm system in 2023 and earned an invite to big league camp. He sits 89-92 MPH with a four-seamer, sinker, slider, curveball, and a changeup.
Torin is carried by a plus hit tool and is a solid defender at both middle infield positions but lacks the power impact to start over Lawlar or Luis.
JD Dix is a long-term option at shortstop or a possible utility infielder role due to his solid across the board tool set.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arizona Cardinals, and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
