PHOENIX – With six games remaining, the Diamondbacks are still alive in the NL Wild Card race, but barely. Arizona sits four games behind Philadelphia for the third National League Wild Card spot. The D-backs’ playoff odds have fallen to roughly 3% to 6%, depending on various projection systems, but the path to October is not out of the realm of possibility. The Phillies need to collapse, and the Diamondbacks need to nearly run the table.
Sep 20, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) celebrates a grand slam during the fifth inning catcher Gabriel Moreno (14) and right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) at Chase Field during the game between Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Yankees. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images
With 6 games left the #Dbacks playoff odds sit at 3.2% (@baseball_ref) and 5.8% (@fangraphs).
There is one very simple scenario that has to occur for Arizona to make the postseason.
Philadelphia finishes 1-5 or worse v. MIL & TBR.
Arizona finishes 5-1 or better v. COL & SDP.
— Arizona Diamondbacks | Stats & Info (@DbacksStatsInfo) September 22, 2026
Arizona’s clearest route is a 5-1 finish against Colorado and San Diego while Philadelphia goes 1-5 or worse against Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. That would put both teams at 87 wins and create a potential opening for Arizona to grab the final Wild Card position. That makes the Phillies’ three-game series against the Brewers particularly important. Milwaukee owns MLB’s best record, while Philadelphia has struggled to create separation in September. For Arizona, though, none of it matters without winning. The D-backs cannot afford to split with Colorado. They cannot afford to stumble against San Diego. Every loss effectively turns the Phillies’ schedule irrelevant.
Sep 14, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) celebrates with teammates after hitting a walk off home run in the ninth inning
at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images
There is also a potential wild card within the wild-card chase: San Diego could potentially clinch before the final series, reducing the stakes of its games against Arizona. That could create an opportunity for the D-backs, although Arizona still has to take advantage. This is no longer about controlling the playoff race; it’s about creating pressure elsewhere. For Diamondbacks fans, the formula is simple: they must win five of six, then hope for the right results in Philadelphia.
Apr 12, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Arizona infielder Ketel Marte (4) advances to third against the Philadelphia Phillies in the eighth inning at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
Get the BEST Phoenix sports insider information, and exclusive content. SIGN UP HERE to unlock our premium content!*
Reporter Benjamin Bliklen covers the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arizona Cardinals, and Phoenix Suns for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on his X account, @BenBliklen
