With 11 games remaining, the Arizona Cardinals are two wins away from matching their win total from each of the last two seasons (4-13 in both 2022-2023 and 2023-2024). However, with the NFC West wide open this year—only the Seattle Seahawks stand above .500 at 4-3—the Cardinals have their sights set higher than simply avoiding a third consecutive four-win season.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Heading into their Monday Night Football matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Cardinals, currently 2-4, have been given a 16% chance to make the playoffs, according to Austin Mock’s model at The Athletic, which is based on 100,000 simulations.
While 16% may seem low, it’s actually an improvement from the 12% chance they were given before the season began. At that time, only the Raiders, Broncos, and Commanders had worse playoff odds. Since then, the Commanders have seen their playoff chances skyrocket from 7% to 71%, while the Broncos have improved to 34%.
The Cardinals‘ highest playoff odds this season came after their thrilling Week 5 comeback victory over the San Francisco 49ers. Before their Week 6 loss to the Green Bay Packers, their chances had risen to 27%.
Mock’s model projects the Cardinals to finish with around seven wins, including victories over the Bears, Seahawks (twice), Patriots, and Panthers. This comes as the NFC West remains wide open, with the 49ers holding the best odds to win the division at just 34%, followed by the Rams at 26%, the Seahawks at 25%, and the Cardinals at 15%. With no clear frontrunner, Arizona’s playoff hopes are still alive despite their current standing
As for Monday night, Arizona has a 41% chance to defeat the Chargers, who currently boast the NFL’s top-ranked defense.
Would you put the Cardinals’ playoff chances above or below their current 16%?
