At 39-40 and in the thick of a crowded National League Wild Card race, the Diamondbacks put themselves in a good position to be buyers at the 2024 trade deadline if they can finish June strong and then carry that momentum over into July. Arizona’s farm system doesn’t rank high, thanks to a wave of promotions the last two seasons and many of their top prospects years away from putting on a Diamondbacks uniform. With that in mind, the natural question to ask is if they have the pieces necessary to upgrade their roster in an impactful way.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Further complicating the situation has been the poor health of their top prospects. Jordan Lawlar, Tommy Troy, Yu-Min Lin, Dylan Ray, and Gino Groover have all missed significant time due to injury. Of that group, Lawlar and Troy are the only two prospects who qualified for the Prospect Promotion Incentive in 2024, ranking on at least two Top 100 lists between Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB. With their top prospects sidelined and not able to get reps, it has negatively impacted their value and makes it a tough sell with them as the headlining player in a trade.
Additionally, the system is very young and inexperienced with much of their high-ceiling prospects in the lower minors. Druw Jones, Jansel Luis, and Cristofer Torin all fit that mold, although Luis has the best odds of turning into a future everyday regular as a second baseman in the big leagues. Last year’s deadline showed that teams valued prospects closer to the big leagues instead of shooting for top talent, so those any of the three might not be a suitable enough player to headline a deal for a major league player that significantly upgrades their roster.
Looking at the top prospects with Triple-A Reno, four prospects come to mind. Adrian Del Castillo, Cristian Mena, Yilber Diaz, and Deyvison De Los Santos are all currently on Reno’s roster and waiting for a big league opportunity with Arizona. Del Castillo and Mena have spent the year with Triple-A Reno, waiting for their first call-up. Diaz and De Los Santos are recent breakout prospects who just graduated from Double-A.
Of those four prospects, Diaz has the best chance of developing into an impact arm as either a starter or a back-of-the-bullpen reliever due to his nasty stuff. De Los Santos is making a hard charge as a potential first base option in the future but still has questionable plate discipline that could unravel his entire profile if it doesn’t improve. Mena looks more like a back-of-the-rotation starter long term but still has youth on his side. He could be an option in the second half of the season for the Diamondbacks if the rotation is still banged up or the team falls out of the race.
Going further down into Double-A Amarillo, the pickings are even more slim. A.J. Vukovich has stalled at the level, unable to build on a solid first season. Caleb Roberts has backed up his solid 2023 showing, but with the ceiling of an end-of-the-bench player is more of a throw-in prospect despite being a catcher. Andrew Pintar and Spencer Giesting are coming off strong first halves with High-A Hillsboro, both earning a promotion this month, but are closer to the bottom of prospect pundits’ Top 30 lists for the Diamondbacks.
Their plans at the deadline will be heavily affected by how much better the team plays when they get more healthy. Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo stated the team has yet to play their best baseball this season in his postgame media session with the media. With San Diego and St. Louis starting to separate from the pack, with the Padres holding a 1.5-game lead over Arizona for the final Wild Card spot, they’ll need to stay in the race for as long as they can in order to become buyers.
Should the Diamondbacks become buyers at the deadline, the biggest mayarea of need will be to shore up their pitching staff. They’ll likely get Zac Gallen and Eduardo RodrÃguez back before the end of July, but Merrill Kelly is targeting a mid-August return. They’ll likely want to address the bullpen and add an impactful arm to their bullpen, preferably a left-hander. Third base is also a low-key need, but not necessarily a priority if they don’t get a deal they like.
A year ago, the Diamondbacks were in a much better position to add to their roster. They may some impactful additions to the roster, with Paul Sewald and Tommy Pham. The cost for Sewald was enormous, giving up two 40-man roster players in Josh Rojas and Dominic Canzone plus a breakout prospect in Ryan Bliss for a year and two months for a viable closer. For Pham, it was a high-ceiling teenage shortstop prospect in Jeremy Rodriguez, one of their top international signings from the 2023 class.
With a seller’s market, thanks to 13 National League teams within four games of a playoff spot, the price to land the same level of impact will be higher for the Diamondbacks. The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds may be starting to fade out of the playoff picture, as they’re more than three games behind the Padres.
The big issue that comes into play is short of trading off their 40-man roster, the team doesn’t have much to offer. Their top prospects have been hurt for much of the season, and many of their prospects in the high minors profile as niche or role players with a limited impact on a big league roster. Most likely the Diamondbacks will have to package a couple of their prospects in the upper minors with one of their high-ceiling prospects in Low-A to facilitate a deal that brings back a meaningful upgrade to the roster at the deadline.
*Get the BEST Phoenix sports insider information, exclusive content, and access to our seasonal magazines! SIGN UP HERE to unlock our premium content!*
Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
