Deyvison De Los Santos is without a doubt, the biggest breakout prospect in the Diamondbacks farm system in 2024. He crushed Double-A pitching to the tune of a .372/.426/.696 slash line with 14 home runs and a 207 wRC+. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A Reno in May, where he’s holding serve with a .314/.364/.602 slash with seven home runs and a 131 wRC+. Looking at the surface numbers and factoring in he just turned 21 last week, the question is if De Los Santos is a legit Top 100 prospect or if there are holes in his game that could be problematic.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!When projecting a prospect into a future major leaguer, the player’s skills and traits will translate more than the production they’re putting up at the plate. De Los Santos certainly has the production of a Top 100 prospect and a defining tool in his profile. A 21-year-old putting up a 131 wRC+ in Triple-A is notable, as that puts him in the same territory as Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas. However, Carroll and Thomas both offered a more diverse skill set.
With Statcast data easily accessible for players in Triple-A, we can take a look at the type of contact he’s generating and his overall plate discipline. De Los Santos is noted to have an aggressive approach as a hitter, as he swings at 55.2% of the pitches he sees. With a minimum of 400 pitches tracked on Statcast, that’s the 15th highest rate amongst Triple-A hitters this season.
The aggressive approach also leads to him chasing out of the zone. His 42.9% chase rate ranks as the seventh highest total in Triple-A, with a minimum of 200 pitches thrown out of the strike zone. That’s a problem that can be exploited by major league pitchers, who have the command and stuff to exploit this one major flaw in his bat.
While I don’t think his plate discipline is developed enough to stick in the major leagues, the good news for De Los Santos is he’s very young for a prospect on the cusp of his debut. With the swing improvements he’s made in 2024 and a better understanding of his ability to drive the ball to all fields, there’s a good chance that he’ll improve his discipline with better instruction at the major league level.
It will be imperative that De Los Santos be able to force pitchers to have to throw him strikes to get him out. While his plate coverage has improved this season, the flaws in his approach are enough for him to be a considerable bust risk. Even with that in mind, his issues as a hitter are not that uncommon for his age, and the potential reward of a big slugger in the middle of the lineup capable of assembling 30 home run and 100 RBI seasons is worth gambling on.
His defensive profile is less of a concern. He’s limited to a first base or DH role, as his instincts weren’t very good at third base. Even though he played the position last year, he is not a realistic option to play there for either this season or beyond that. With manager Torey Lovullo being a stickler for defense and pitching, that’s a problem.
Projecting De Los Santos as a first baseman, he has enough mobility to stick there in the absence of a better defender. The Diamondbacks have benefitted from excellent first base defense since the 2012 season, with Paul Goldschmidt and Christian Walker combining for five Gold Glove Awards. Even with that in mind, the defensive profile is not a major concern because if his bat plays, he has the type of power worth playing as an everyday DH.
Projecting the type of career De Los Santos could have, he profiles as a low-OBP slugger that will put up a triple slash around .250/.300/.450 with 25-30 home runs and below-average first base defense. That doesn’t project particularly well for an everyday player, especially considering the big negative defensive value.
As is the case for a lot of young prospects in the upper minors and aren’t a Top 100 prospect, there are massive strengths and weaknesses to De Los Santos’ game. The question that will ultimately decide what type of player he’ll become is if those strengths are able to overcome those weaknesses. Age is definitely on his side, as he has plenty of time to develop his approach. However, the team’s situation at first base could also rush him to the major leagues.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
