Phoenix Suns star Devin Booker still has a lot to prove in the NBA, according to Basketball Reference’s Hall of Fame probability rankings among current players.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Booker ranks 32nd with a 4.89% probability to make the Hall of Fame, per Basketball Reference. These are the next seven players ahead of him:
25. Al Horford – 23.78%
26. Karl-Anthony Towns – 22.64%
27. Donovan Mitchell – 12.85%
28. Derrick Rose – 10.52%
29. Trae Young – 9.41%
30. Isaiah Thomas – 7.05%
31. Domantas Sabonis – 6.69%
(h/t NBA Central/X)
Hall of Fame probability according to @bball_ref
1. LeBron James – 100.00%
2. Kevin Durant – 100.00%
3. Chris Paul – 100.00%
4. Stephen Curry – 100.00%
5. James Harden – 99.99%
6. Russell Westbrook – 99.93%
7. Anthony Davis – 99.60%
8. Damian Lillard – 98.71%
9. Giannis…— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) August 26, 2024
Suns teammate Kevin Durant has a 100% probability to get into the Hall of Fame, according to this list, while Bradley Beal is two spots below Booker at 34th with a 2.26% probability.
It is important to note that these percentages are based on an equation. This is part of Basketball Reference’s explanation of the probability model.
“Players receive points for appearing on leaderboards, receiving 10 points for leading the league in a category and 1 point for finishing 10th. This seems like a fair way to award credit for both black and gray ink. The eligible statistical categories include PTS, TRB, AST, MP, STL, BLK. The list of predictor variables is:
- Height (in.)
- NBA Championships
- NBA Leaderboard Points
- NBA Peak Win Shares
- All-Star Game Selections
Example
The parameter estimates given in the previous section can be used to obtain the predicted probability of Hall of Fame election for a particular player. We’ll go through an example using Tony Parker following the 2013-14 season. Find the values of the five predictor variables for Parker, multiply them by the coefficients given below, and find the sum of the products:
Constant term -0.20303
Height (in.) -0.14203 * 74 = -10.51022
NBA Championships 0.80573 * 4 = 3.22292
NBA Leaderboard Points 0.01594 * 4 = 0.06376
NBA Peak Win Shares 0.41568 * 9.6 = 3.99053
NBA All-Star Game Selections 1.02443 * 6 = 6.14658
—————————————————————
2.71054
To find the predicted probability of Hall of Fame election, do the following:
P(HoF election) = 1 / (1 + exp(-(2.71054))) = 93.8%
Based on Tony Parker’s statistics and accomplishments, the probability that he will be elected to the Hall of Fame, as it stands now, is 93.8%.”
The explanation also notes: Â “Although it can be risky to make predictions for active players, you can think of these probabilities as answering the question ‘If this player retired today, what is the probability he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?'”
There is no doubt that Booker has already established himself among the elite of the elite in today’s game, as exemplified by him starting for Team USA in the gold medal game of the 2024 Paris Olympics alongside four former MVPs in Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Durant and Joel Embiid.
Booker only needs 1,138 more points to surpass Walter Davis and become the Suns all-time leading scorer, as he sits at 14,529 career points. Davis was posthumously inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame this year.
Booker also has the 10th-most points in NBA history of any player before turning 28 years old and only needs four more points to pass Oscar Robinson and move up to No. 9. His birthday is on Oct. 30, and the Suns have four regular season games before then. All nine players ahead of Booker have either made the Hall of Fame or can be penciled in once they are eligible (via StatMuse):
- LeBron James – 19,771 points before 28 (100% chance to make HOF by Basketball Reference)
- Kevin Durant – 17,566 points before 28 (100% chance to make HOF by Basketball Reference)
- Kobe Bryant – 16,866 points before 28 (HOF)
- Wilt Chamberlain – 16,304 points before 28 (HOF)
- Carmelo Anthony – 15,926 points before 28 (98.4% chance to make HOF when eligible in 2026 by Basketball Reference)
- Michael Jordan – 15,519 points before 28 (HOF)
- Tracy McGrady – 15,317 points before 28 (HOF)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 14,927 points before 28 (98.7% chance to make HOF by Basketball Reference)
- Oscar Robinson – 14,532 points before 28 (HOF)
- Devin Booker – 14,529 points before 28 (4.89% chance to make HOF by Basketball Reference)
The one downfall for Booker so far in his career is his lack of recognition in awards and how bad the Suns were before the 2020-21 season. Booker has only made an All-NBA Team twice (First Team in 2022 and Third Team in 2024) and is a four-time All-Star (2020, 2021, 2022 and 2024).
Between 2015-16 (Booker’s rookie season) and the 2019-20 season, the Suns went 121-280 overall. Since the 2020-21 season, however, Phoenix has the most wins in the NBA, going 209-109 in these four years, including a franchise record 64 wins in the 2021-22 season. The Suns and Booker are still searching for their first NBA championship.
There is no doubt that Booker will make the Hall of Fame if he continues to play at this level, but he has accomplished plenty through his first nine seasons. There is a lot of time left in his career for Booker to prove why he is a future Hall of Famer, but right now the main goal on his mind is a championship.
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Brendan Mau is a senior writer covering the Phoenix Suns and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @Brendan_Mau
