It’s been a pretty tough fall from grace for former Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald. Entering July, Sewald had a 0.56 ERA and converted his first 11 save opportunities. A ninth-inning lead and Sewald on the mound meant the game was over for the opponent, as Arizona was 17-0 when Sewald pitched in such situations through June.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!However, Sewald’s success ended on July 2 against the Dodgers. Tasked with closing out a one-run lead, he gave up three base hits to the final three hitters faced and ended up blowing the first of four consecutive save opportunities. He recovered to convert the next five chances but then struggled in his final opportunity against Washington on July 31 where he struggled to throw strikes. For the month, he was only successful on five of 10 save opportunities even though one of them officially credited a hold instead of a blown save.
Manager Torey Lovullo removed his struggling closer from the role just a couple of days later. Sewald has since taken a lot of low-leverage innings, with a 0.54 average leverage index when entering the game. That is, by far, the lowest of any Diamondbacks reliever with at least nine innings pitched in August. Justin Martinez has more or less taken over the closer role, with the highest leverage index out of the bullpen for the month. Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, and A.J. Puk have established themselves as the bridge. That leaves Sewald searching for a role as the Diamondbacks close in on the postseason.
Initially, his break from the closer role looked temporary. He did not give up a run in his first six appearances in August but has been scored in three straight. They were mostly mop-up situations with large leads in the ninth. Those things typically go unnoticed since it didn’t impact the team’s ability to win baseball games. That changed in Friday’s loss to the Dodgers.
Coming into a high-leverage situation in the seventh inning, Sewald inherited two runners on base and needed to get two more outs to keep it a 6-5 game. He was one strike away from doing so, but missed with a fastball to Will Smith and surrendered a three-run home run that allowed the Dodgers to blow the game open. He gave up another run on another home run, allowing Los Angeles to survive a ninth-inning rally by the Diamondbacks. Had he done his job, the game may have ended differently.
Throughout the month, Lovullo has been adamant that the best version of their bullpen has Sewald as the closer. At the same time, the Diamondbacks aren’t going to ignore reality if it’s painfully obvious he can’t get big outs on the club. It will be tough for the Diamondbacks to consider him an option for the postseason roster as only a mop-up or low-leverage reliever, as Jordan Montgomery and Slade Cecconi can do that and offer more length.
After a brutal month of July, his velocity and results have marginally improved. His fastball velocity has jumped from 91.3 in July to 91.9 MPH in August. While opponents are hitting .270 with a .568 slugging percentage, the expected stats paint a much rosier picture. The expected batting average and slugging against Sewald in August are .199 and .341 respectively. Following the loss to the Dodgers, Lovullo said it’s getting better despite the recent stretch of poor outings. Those expected numbers, which has some similarity with the team’s internal analytics, may be the reason behind it.
Regardless of what the metrics say, Sewald is still a critical member of the bullpen for better or worse. They’ll need him to overcome these recent struggles, as there will be games like Friday where he’ll be called to get big outs for the team. They’ll still need him to deliver on that front, no matter what inning it is, for them to have a chance in the postseason.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arizona Cardinals, and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
