Starting pitching has been the bellweather for how the Diamondbacks are going to do in a game in the 2024 season. In 20 of their 82 games that didn’t feature an opener, a starter has allowed five runs. The team’s record is 1-19, with their lone win coming on April 16 against the Chicago Cubs.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!That game featured multiple lead changes and big scoring swings by both the Diamondbacks and Cubs. It ended in 10 innings when Randal Grichuk doubled to left center on the first pitch to walk off Chicago an inning after Ketel Marte hit a two-out, game-tying home run to tie the game.
Here are the number of starts that a Diamondbacks starting pitcher has allowed five or more, in ascending order from least to most frequent and a minimum of five starts on the season:
- Zac Gallen: 1/13 (7.7%)
- Brandon Pfaadt: 4/17 (23.5%)
- Ryne Nelson: 4/13 (30.8%)
- Jordan Montgomery: 4/13 (30.8%)
- Slade Cecconi: 4/12 (33.3%)
- Tommy Henry: 4/7 (42.9%)
The much higher percentages for the starters other than Gallen and Pfaadt are pretty troubling, as it means every third start the rotation is potentially pitching the team out of the game. The average start in these games is four innings, meaning the bullpen has to go four to five innings to close out a game. That applies extra pressure on the relievers and can negatively impact how a team can maneuver through a series if enough of these starts happen frequently.
There have been some close calls in the season where the team has been able to rally from back down or had the lead to absorb such a start. In four of those 19 losses, the Diamondbacks were either ahead, tied, or trailing by one in the seventh inning or later. Two of those games, they came back from down five or more runs to either tie or take the lead. Another one they had an 8-2 lead after four innings let slip against the Atlanta Braves on April 6. With better execution from the bullpen in those games, and we’re probably singing a different tune about this team.
The Diamondbacks face a dilemma when handling their patchwork rotation and navigating a tough stretch of their season. They’re tapped out in terms of internal options, now needing to go beyond their Opening Day 40-man roster with Yilber Diaz set to debut on Monday. Four starting pitcher options on their 40-man roster are currently on the injured list, further exasperating the situation. At the same time, they lack the prospect capital to acquire a starting pitcher that moves the needle for them in the trade market.
Despite these issues, the Diamondbacks are still very much alive in the Wild Card race, sitting 3.5 games back of St. Louis for the final Wild Card spot. Arizona has done a good job of winning when the pitching can hold down the opposition, with a 38-9 record when allowing four runs or fewer.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
