Entering the second week of June, the Diamondbacks’ patchwork starting rotation is barely holding on by a thread. Their top three projected starters entering the season are all on the injured. Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to throw a pitch in the regular season, Merrill Kelly lasted only four starts, and Zac Gallen was a recent addition. However, they only sit a full game out of position for a Wild Card spot despite being four games under .500, so the question is can the Diamondbacks stay in the playoff hunt long enough until the rotation gets healthy?
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Arizona is not necessarily built to come from behind, but what they do well is the ability to play downhill baseball. They’re one of the best teams at scoring first, but at the same time they haven’t shown an ability to comeback from down multiple runs this season. The Diamondbacks still only have one win when trailing by multiple runs at any point in the ballgame, the fewest in the league. With a team that’s excellent at scoring first and struggles to comeback in games, having quality starting pitching is a must for this team to be successful.
Over the past 10 days, the team has a record of 6-4. Considering the teams they’ve played over that stretch and the health of their roster, that’s been very solid. Only three times has a Diamondbacks starter gone at least five innings, two of them by Brandon Pfaadt and the other by Ryne Nelson. The bullpen has had to endure a lot of long nights over those 10 games, leading to a lot of roster churning in that area. The team made roster moves on four consecutive days concerning the bullpen.
The biggest disappointment in this stretch has been the performance of veteran left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery was brought in to stabilize the middle of the rotation in the wake of Eduardo Rodriguez’s injury, but he himself has been hit hard in his last two outings. The 31-year-old lefty has allowed 14 runs on 16 hits over his past six innings, with the Diamondbacks losing both of his starts. Prior to his last two starts, he has given the team competitive outings in six of his first seven starts. Montgomery probably won’t be the same guy who carried the Rangers pitching staff in 2023, but if he can give his team a chance to win, they will.
Montgomery’s struggles have exasperated the team’s struggles with developing their pitching prospects. Pfaadt could be considered a success, as he’s been able to give them five innings or more every time out this season, but his 4.60 ERA is relatively unspectacular. Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry have career ERAs of 5.14 and 4.75 respectively, despite getting ample opportunities to stick in the rotation. Throw in another rookie in Slade Cecconi, who the team is very protective of once he gets to about the 18-batter mark in a start, and the team has the potential for disaster in the rotation with 80% of the starters currently not reliable.
With an uncertainty in the length the starters can provide, that adds extra stress and pressure for the bullpen. Their relief corps is much deeper than last year with a healthier Joe Mantiply and the emergence of Justin Martinez as a potential wipeout arm. Add those two to the trio of Paul Sewald, Ryan Thompson, and Kevin Ginkel that carried them at the end of 2023, the Diamondbacks have five capable relief arms that can pitch the final four innings of the game.
The Diamondbacks should have Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodriguez back in the rotation. With Gallen coming off a relatively mild hamstring issue, it’s likely he’ll return to form. However, the same might not be said for both Kelly and Rodriguez, as both are over 30 and coming off major shoulder injuries. There’s no certainty those two pitchers will return as good as they were in 2023, which would further complicate matters and perhaps force the team to pursue pitching at a very difficult trade deadline.
The good news for Arizona is there is no National League team separating in the Wild Card race. They are a game back of a Wild Card spot and only a half game further back of the second. They’ll have a chance to feast on some lesser competition when they play series against the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, and Washington Nationals.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks and Arizona Cardinals for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
