The Diamondbacks have won 10 of their last 16 games, pulling from a season-worst six games under .500 to an impressive road series win against the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’re playing better baseball, getting more consistent starting pitching, and getting more production from all over their lineup. Next up is the Miami Marlins, a team that will likely finish last place in the National League East. On paper, this is a series the Diamondbacks will need to at least win, if not sweep.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!It’s easy to discount the Marlins, who are 17-34 and have already given up on any postseason asipirations, but seven of those wins have come in their last 10 games. That stretch includes series wins over the Detroit Tigers, New York Mets, and Milwaukee Brewers, so they are beating some solid teams. The Diamondbacks should not take the Marlins lightly, or they’ll be facing their third consecutive series loss to them.
Pitching Probables
Friday, May 24, 6:40 PM: LHP Braxton Garrett (0-0, 10.24 ERA) vs. RHP Zac Gallen (5-3, 3.02 ERA)
Braxton Garrett has spent much of 2024 injured, with just two starts on the year after opening the season on the injured list with a shoulder issue. The results haven’t been great, as Garrett has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in 9 2/3 innings across two starts. However, his track record of being a solid starting pitcher is evident, with a 3.66 ERA in 30 starts in 2023. Garrett features a fastball, sinker, cutter, slider, and a changeup to keep hitters guessing.
Zac Gallen has slowly rounded into midseason form after pitching the first month of the year with slightly diminished velocity and stuff, but his last two times out has looked like vintage Gallen. Gallen looked to be in control against the Tigers in his last start, one strike away from seven scoreless innings, but the inning got away in a Diamondbacks 8-3 loss. He’ll have an extra chip on his shoulder facing the Marlins, the team he debuted with and later traded to Arizona in 2019.
Saturday, May 25, 7:10 PM: RHP Sixto Sánchez (0-2, 6.41 ERA) vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 4.98 ERA)
Sixto Sánchez was once an elite prospect and the centerpiece in the J.T. Realmuto deal with Philadelphia, but his career has not quite materialized with the Marlins. On the mound for the first time since 2020, he has produced subpar results in seven relief appearances and five starts. With the Marlins’ rotation falling apart due to injuries, Sánchez has a great opportunity to stake his claim to a spot. He features a mid-90s fastball, a sinker, cutter, and a changeup.
Jordan Montgomery has pitched better than the numbers for the Diamondbacks so far in 2024, giving his team a chance to win in five of his six starts. Last time out, Montgomery handled a hot Detroit lineup fairly well and had a quality start through six innings. He faced one batter in the seventh, which came around to score later in the inning. That cost him the win and the quality start, but the Diamondbacks went on to win that game.
Sunday, May 26, 1:10 PM: LHP Ryan Weathers (2-4, 3.49 ERA) vs. TBA
Ryan Weathers was once a top draft selection for the San Diego Padres, but was dealt to the Marlins at the deadline for Garrett Cooper. He’s found a home in Miami, pitching to a solid 3.49 ERA in 10 starts and added stability to a rotation crushed by injuries. He’s averaging 96 MPH on his four-seamer with a sinker, sweeper, and a changeup to round his arsenal.
The Diamondbacks have yet to announce a starter for Sunday, but they’ll most likely turn to left-hander Blake Walston to either start or pitch in bulk relief.
Key Batters
Diamondbacks
With two left-handers expected to start the series, Randal Grichuk should get two starts. Against lefties, Grichuk is hitting .327 and slugging .429. While there hasn’t been much extra-base hit impact, he’s been a huge plus for the Diamondbacks as a fourth outfielder and occasional DH.
Kevin Newman continues to swing the bat well from the bottom of the order. He’s batting .389 with seven extra-base hits and four walks since May 4, solidifying the shortstop position at critical time for the Diamondbacks.
Ketel Marte enters the series with a 21-game hitting streak. He’ll have a chance to catch Tony Womack, who had a 24-game streak from May 2 to May 29, 2000, in this series.
Marlins
Jazz Chisholm Jr. was part of the Zac Gallen deal. He’s having a solid year, batting .254 with seven home runs and a 114 OPS+. He’s 0-for-9 with three strikeouts against Gallen in his career.
Outfielder Bryan De La Cruz is having a solid year at the plate, batting .259 with nine home runs and a 112 OPS+.
Otto Lopez has taken over the second base position since the Marlins dealt Luis Arraez to the Padres earlier this month. Lopez is hitting .283 with three home runs and a .806 OPS (126 OPS+)
Bullpens
Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have gotten some solid relief work of late, especially with the return of Paul Sewald as the closer. Save for one bad series against Detroit, Arizona’s relievers have performed well in May. Sewald, Thompson, and Mantiply have combined for eight shutdowns vs. one meltdown. Kevin Ginkel has struggled in recent outings, but looked more like his 2023 self in his most recent appearance Wednesday.
Marlins
The strength of the Marlins has been their bullpen. Tanner Scott and Declan Cronin both have sub-2.00 ERAs at the back of their bullpen, shortening the game for Miami. Scott’s walk issues earlier in his career have resurfaced, with 18 walks in 21 innings. Andrew Nardi and Anthony Bender have struggled, with a 5.68 ERA and 6.20 ERA respectively, but FIP suggests both pitchers have been unlucky with their results.
