Less than a week after the Diamondbacks completed a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark, the two teams will square off for three more at Chase Field. Two of the three probable starters both pitched in the previous series, so there aren’t any secrets between the two teams.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The current trend could not be any more different between two clubs many predicted would be in the Naitonal League playoff picture this season. Arizona is coming off a 4-2 road trip, finding more consistent offense throughout the lineup and getting quality starts from their rotation. Meanwhile, the Reds have lost 10 of their last 11 games and are seeing their 2024 season potentially spiraling out of control. This series very well could determine the potential fate of both the Diamondbacks and Reds.
Probable Pitchers
May 13, 6:40 PM – RHP Graham Ashcraft (3-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 4.70 ERA)
Both pitchers faced off on May 8th, with Montgomery defeating Ashcraft in a 4-3 Diamondbacks win. Ashcraft features a sinker, cutter, and slider. Ashcraft has limited the free passes better in 2024, cutting his walks per nine innings from 3.21 in 2023 to 2.74 in 2024. While he doesn’t miss a lot of bats, the movement on his pitches takes the ball off the barrel of the bat. When going well, he’ll generate a lot of ground balls. He pitched five-plus innings, allowing three runs on six hits, three walks, and two strikeouts.
Montgomery pitched seven innings, allowing two runs on seven hits, two walks, and two strikeouts. He’s recorded a quality start in three of his four starts to begin 2024 and has been a godsend for a rotation beset by injuries. Montgomery isn’t missing a lot of bats, with just 10 strikeouts in 23 innings on the season, but has done a good job of avoiding the barrel with a 3.8% rate ranking in the 86th percentile amongst qualified pitchers. He uses a sinker, curveball, and changeup.
May 14, 6:40 PM – RHP Hunter Greene (1-2, 3.38 ERA) vs. RHP Slade Cecconi (1-2, 4.15 ERA)
Greene appears to be taking the next step forward, as his ERA is down more than a full run from his 2023 mark of 4.82. Against the Diamondbacks on May 9, he allowed three runs in five innings, allowing four hits, walking five, and striking out six. With his power fastball/slider combination, Greene is striking out 27.7% of hitters in 2024. It’ll be interesting to see where his velocity is, as it was down three ticks in his last start.
Cecconi was close to dominant despite the low strikeout total, allowing just one run on a solo home run in 5 1/3 innings on three hits, three walks, and two strikeouts in a 5-4 win over the Reds. He didn’t have a great feel for his new changeup, relying more on his slow curveball as a third pitch in Cincinnati, which explains the low strikeout total. Cecconi has pitched well in three of his four starts, with six of the 10 runs he’s allowed on the season coming in a start against San Diego.
May 15, 12:40 PM – LHP Andrew Abbott (2-4, 3.35 ERA) vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt (1-3, 4.60 ERA)
Abbott will face the Diamondbacks for the first time in his career. The 6’0″ lefty out of Virginia features a mid-90s four-seamer, curveball, slider, and a changeup. His pitches all have above-average horizontal movement when factoring in the velocity and spin rates on them, so he’s a guy who likes to attack the glove side of the plate. He tends to miss out over the plate with his fastball and curveball, so that would be the pitches for the Diamondbacks to target.
Brandon Pfaadt defeated the Reds last August to pick up his first career major league win. The right-hander has pitched much better than the numbers and record would indicate, but a lack of run support has been an issue. Pfaadt has recorded four quality starts on the season, but the Diamondbacks are 0-4 in those starts. Command of his four-seamer, sinker, and sweeper combination will be the barometer for how his start will go, although he’ll occasionally mix in a curveball and changeup to lefties.
Hot Hitters
Diamondbacks
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has reached base in each of his last five games. Over that stretch he’s batting .273 with two doubles, two RBI, and three runs scored. Gurriel had been mired in a deep slump entering the road trip, so it appears he’s beginning to break out from that.
Randal Grichuk has been solid against left-handed pitching this season, batting .316 with four doubles and a .770 OPS. Signed to a one-year deal to provide more coverage vs. lefties in the lineup, he’s been exactly what the team has hoped for so far. He’ll start against Abbott in the series finale.
Kevin Newman quietly had a strong road trip, going 6-for-18 with three extra-base hits. With the team needing a reliable glove at the shortstop position, any uptick in offense is huge for Newman’s playing time.
Tucker Barnhart was the unsung hero of the road trip. While he only went 1-for-7, he drew five walks to help set up the top of the order to drive in runs. Some of the best at-bats came from the Diamondbacks backup catcher.
Reds
Outfielder Jake Fraley was a thorn in the Diamondbacks side in the previous series against the Reds and is hitting .400 in his last six games.
Third baseman Jeimer Candelario is heating up at the plate, batting .304 with a home run and five RBI over the last week. The home run was off Slade Cecconi on May 9 and he has a bases-clearing double against the San Francisco Giants on Sunday.
