When Merrill Kelly comes off the injured list to start Sunday’s game, the Diamondbacks will have some tough decisions to make with their starting rotation. Assuming they roll with five starting pitchers, that means someone is getting bumped. After last night’s start, Ryne Nelson has made it obvious that any decision that takes him out would be a massive mistake.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Since July, Nelson has pitched to a 2.90 ERA over 49 2/3 innings in eight appearances, seven starts. Over that stretch, he’s allowed just two home runs with 49 strikeouts and 11 walks. Opposing hitters are hitting .209 with a .594 OPS. His strong pitching has translated into wins, as they’ve won each of his past seven starts. With the Diamondbacks in a pennant race and the National League West division still up for grabs, they need to go with the guy who gives them the best chance to win. No pitcher gives them a better chance to win right now than Nelson.
Those last seven starts have done a lot to quiet my personal doubts about Nelson as a starting pitcher. He entered the season as a one-and-a-half-pitch pitcher with a fastball in the mid-90s and an ugly cutter/slider hybrid. He has made massive improvements this season, with a legit three-pitch mix between his four-seamer, cutter, and slider that can get big league hitters out. Mechanical adjustments have added more life to his fastball, showing more upper-90s velocity readings, and allowed him to maintain that velocity deeper into his starts. With those two concerns addressed, he’s a bona fide major league starter.
The other pitcher whose rotation spot is somewhat in the air is Jordan Montgomery. Signed to a one-year free agent deal with a vesting option for 2025 that’s already been triggered, it has not been a good first season for the veteran left-hander. Montgomery has a 6.37 ERA in 17 starts with some very ugly peripherals. His strikeout rate is a career-low 14.6% compared to an 8.5% walk rate. Opposing batters are hitting .316 with a .874 OPS against him.
The other issue with Montgomery is the 2025 vesting option and how it’s tied to the total number of starts he makes in 2024. He’s just one start away from increasing the option by $2.5 million to $22.5 million, and six starts away from the option reaching the max value of $25 million. With Montgomery struggling as bad as he is, he’ll be more inclined to opt into the Diamondbacks rotation in 2025. The option amount will hardly be the main reason behind their thought process behind their rotation decision.
For Arizona, the decision they have to make on the rotation has to be one based off performance. Nelson has made the second most starts on the team and along with fellow youngster Brandon Pfaadt has stabilized the rotation. To me, taking the surging right-hander out of the rotation during the best stretch of his career is turning their backs on what made them successful, a decision that could come back to bite them.
For an outside observer like me, it seems like this should be an easy decision based on the dichotomy of recent performances. However, this is a sport played by people, not baseball card stats, so this is a decision that will have a massive impact on two careers. Before 2024, Montgomery has had the far superior track record as a major league starter compared to Nelson. But the last six weeks have changed things, and that has to be factored into the decision on who Arizona ultimately chooses to keep in their starting rotation.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arizona Cardinals, and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
