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James Conner believes his 2023 season is the floor, not the ceiling moving forward

Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner rushes against the New York Giants at State Farm Stadium.
Sep 17, 2023; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner (6) reacts after making a first down against the New York Giants in the first half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Schumacher-Arizona Republic

Cardinals running back James Conner is coming off his first career 1,000-yard season. The young running back brings a physical element to a rushing attack that ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (2,365) and second in yards per attempt (5.0). Despite only playing in 13 games, he averaged 80.0 yards and led the team with 1,205 yards from scrimmage.

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For Conner, he believes the 1,000-yard season is the floor, not the ceiling for the production he brings to the Cardinals offense moving forward.

“That’s the floor,” Conner told Cardinals ESPN beat writer Josh Weinfuss earlier this week. “I want that to be the lowest I rush for in my career going forward.

The key for him to make that the new standard will come down to health. Those 13 games are the second most he’s played in a single season, trailing the 15 games from his first year in Arizona. An MCL sprain cost the Cardinals’ starting running back four games in 2023.

At 6’1” and 233 lbs. Connor has more than enough size to wear down defenses on early downs in the running game. His success also translates to the team’s ability to score. When Conner produces at least 80 yards rushing, the Cardinals have scored at least 20 points. Third round pick Trey Benson is likely to serve as his primary backup, there should be more than enough capable players to keep him fresh throughout games and allow him to perform at his best when on the field.

Entering the 2024 season, the offense is healthy and has the chance to build on a solid foundation they put in their final eight games. Kyler Murray is healthy, which instantly adds a bigger dimension to both the running and passing game as a dual-threat quarterback. Having him and Conner in the backfield gives the Cardinals an added dimension that can use the aggressiveness of the opposing defense against them in zone reads and run-pass options (RPOs).

In the passing game, the Cardinals have assembled a solid group of receivers. With Trey McBride breaking out for 81 catches and 825 yards in his sophomore season, combined with a strong rookie season from Michael Wilson, and the addition of blue-chip receiving talent Marvin Harrison Jr., they have the ability to attack defenses deep should opponents stack the box. That could cause defenses to adjust to more two-deep shell coverages, which could create more running room for Conner.

Beyond just the running ability of the Cardinals’ starting running back, he has value in the passing game. He won’t be confused for a James White, Shane Vereen-type back who can line up at multiple spots in the field and legitimately play like a receiver, he does more than your typical early down back in that area. His presence in the backfield already sells the potential run on play action passes, but he’s a capable outlet receiver who can make plays in the open field against linebackers. He’s averaged about 30 receptions and 250 yards per season in the NFL.

It’s also worth noting that Conner’s two most productive games as a receiver came in the last three weeks, with a 54 and a 67-yard game in that stretch. Both games were losses, but he’s been a significant factor in that area in the past with a 55-reception season with Pittsburgh in 2018. He’s working with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing to find ways to contribute more in the passing game, so it will be interesting to see the results of those efforts once the season starts.

For Conner to have that type of season, it will depend not only on the health of the offensive line but also on the other skill players in the offense. However, should he put up another 1,000-yard season, the Cardinals should have a much better season on that side of the ball in 2024.

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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arizona Cardinals, and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB

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