The Diamondbacks will close out the first half playing 13 games in 13 days. The first 10 will come against National League teams who currently occupy a postseason spot. The first three will come against the NL West-leading Dodgers in Los Angeles, followed by three in San Diego before they return home. Then they’ll face the Atlanta Braves in four games and the Toronto Blue Jays for three before the All-Star break. It’s safe to say this stretch will be difficult and could very well determine the direction of their season.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!This is another stretch of games where the Diamondbacks will need to continue to tread water and play .500 ball. It will be easier said than done, given the current state of the starting rotation. With the return of Zac Gallen, getting to 7-6 in that stretch and getting themselves a game closer to .500 is more doable. The good news for Arizona is Gallen will start three of those 13 games, all of which are “must-win” games. He’s slated to pitch on July 4 vs. Los Angeles, July 9 vs. Atlanta, and July 14th vs. Toronto.
The Dodgers serve as a tough challenge, as they have one of the best lineups in the game. They rank second in MLB in adjusted OPS+ at 121, 21% better than the average team, and fourth in ERA+ at 117. However, they are not at full strength, with a litany of issues at the shortstop position coupled with their best player, Mookie Betts, on the injured list with a fractured left hand. They still feature the NL MVP frontrunner, Shohei Ohtani, and likely All-Stars Freddie Freeman and Will Smith in their lineup. While a difficult challenge, they’ve won a series in LA before so it is possible to do it again.
The Padres will serve as the most important series in this stretch. It will be an opportunity to make up ground on a team ahead of them in the Wild Card race. Arizona is 3-4 against San Diego this season, with Petco Park being a recent house of horrors. The Padres will be without the services of their best player, Fernando Tatis Jr., for a while due to a stress reaction in his right femur. However, they still feature a lockdown bullpen, a solid starting rotation, and a lineup that can grind down opposing pitchers. It will be an especially tough matchup against the Diamondbacks’ younger starters, who aren’t consistent at finishing off hitters.
The Diamondbacks will also get some reinforcements on their roster. Catcher Gabriel Moreno is expected to be back for the Dodgers series and Alek Thomas is not too far behind. On the position player side, the team will be as healthy as they’ve been all season. It’ll still be a month before their starting rotation will get healthy, as the team awaits results on Eduardo RodrÃguez’s scheduled MRI on July 6 and Merrill Kelly is looking to return by mid-August.
Once they return home, they’ll get a rematch against the Braves. Despite taking two big leads early in the series, and relatively competitive starting pitching, a poor series from the bullpen turned what should have been a series win into getting swept. The Diamondbacks bullpen is in much better shape in July than they were in April, which should make a difference if they have a had. However, the Braves are also dealing with a lot of underperformance in their lineup, and missing their sparkplug at the top of the order as Ronald Acuña Jr. will miss the rest of the season with a left ACL tear.
Their last series over this stretch is a trap. After playing 10 games against playoff teams and the All-Star Break looming, the Diamondbacks have to keep their guard up. The Blue Jays are a talented enough team despite their shockingly poor performance in 2024, coming off an 89-win season in 2023, to beat Arizona if they sleepwalk through that series like Oakland.
With the number of playoff teams on this portion of the schedule, it will also serve as a good test. If the Diamondbacks can show they can compete with the top teams in the National League, it should give them a small confidence boost going into the break. They’ll need that confidence in order to make a run in the second half of July against fringe Wild Card teams and try to close the gap between them and the St. Louis Cardinals.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
