The Diamondbacks will host the Detroit Tigers for a three-game series at Chase Field over the weekend. The last time the two teams played, Arizona swept Detroit in a three-game series at Comerica Park, but the Tigers are a much different team in 2024. Led by an excellent pitching staff, the Tigers have a Top 10 pitching staff in just about every run prevention metric. It can be a tough draw for a struggling offense like the Diamondbacks to face a strong pitching staff, especially with the arms they’ll face in the series.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!If there is one fatal flaw with the Tigers, they’re not a great offensive team. They rank in the bottom 10 in just about every offensive category, including 24th in batting average (.226), 26th in OPS (.660), and 21st in runs per game (4.00). Against a Diamondbacks pitching staff that can be wobbly at times, especially with the back half of the starting rotation and the middle relievers, it’s the type of team they should take a series against.
Pitching Probables
Friday, May 17: LHP Tarik Skubal (5-0, 2.32 ERA) vs. RHP Ryne Nelson (2-2, 5.33 ERA)
Tarik Skubal was once drafted by the Diamondbacks in the 29th round of the 2017 draft but chose to stay at Seattle University for his senior year. He got picked up by the Tigers in the ninth round the following year and has since developed into one of the best left-handers in the major leagues. With a fastball that averages 96 MPH, but can touch triple digits, a sinker, slider, changeup, and a curveball, he can be an overpowering arm against most hitters. He is on a short list of candidates who could win the American League Cy Young Award for the 2024 season.
Ryne Nelson has continued to be inconsistent on the mound, as evidenced by another subpar start against the Baltimore Orioles. He allowed three runs on 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss to the Orioles. Length has been an issue, as Nelson has only gone more than five innings in one of his six starts in 2024. When going good, he has an overpowering fastball that averages around 95 MPH, a cutter, slider, curveball, and a changeup. With Blake Walston and Cristian Mena banging on the door for an opportunity in Triple-A, Nelson will need to put together good outings to stay in the rotation.
Saturday, May 18: RHP Jack Flaherty (0-3, 3.88 ERA) vs. RHP Zac Gallen (4-2, 2.86 ERA)
Flaherty signed a one-year free agent deal with the Tigers in the offseason and it’s been a great pickup. He leads all MLB pitchers with a 10.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio (63/6), as both his strikeout and walk rates have drastically improved in 2024. His velocity has increased a tick across the board, although he’s completely ditched the cutter he used with the Cardinals and Orioles last season. His fastball has been hit relatively hard, but the curveball and slider have shown great bat-missing ability and the three pitches serve as quality putaway pitches, with all three pitches generating a strikeout on at least 26% on two-strike counts.
Gallen turned in a quality start against the Orioles, allowing them to salvage a series finale and avoid a potentially long losing streak. His velocity was up in his past start, sitting at 94.2 MPH on the fastball and all of his main pitches up roughly 1 MPH compared to his 2024 season averages. Gallen features a four-seam fastball, a knuckle curve, a slider, and a changeup. His ability to spot his fastball and then get to the knuckle curve and slider will be key, as the two breaking pitches each yield a whiff rate above 40%.
Sunday May 19: RHP Matt Manning (0-1, 4.37 ERA) vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 4.76 ERA)
Matt Manning features a power arsenal led by a 94 MPH fastball that gets a lot of carry, a sweeper, curveball, and a splitter. He relies on the four-seamer, sweeper, and curveball for 92% of his pitches in 2024. He’s very good at using the movement of his pitches to lead hitters out of the strike zone to get swings and misses or weak contact. Health has been an issue throughout his career, with three separate stints on the injured list for shoulder, forearm, and foot injuries. He was recently recalled from Triple-A when Kenta Maeda was placed on the 15-day IL with a viral illness last week.
Jordan Montgomery’s numbers are heavily weighted by his clunker start, but in his first five starts with Arizona has been solid. He looked solid against the Reds in his previous start, with some unlucky results, holding Cincinnati to three runs in 5 1/3 innings in an eventual Diamondbacks win. Montgomery’s fastball velocity is down nearly 2 MPH and his command for the changeup has been inconsistent at best. Both the sinker and changeup have been hit hard this season, but the curveball and his newly unveiled slider have gotten good results.
Key Hitters
Detroit Tigers
Riley Greene is a very dangerous hitter in the Reds lineup. While he is only batting .242, he draws a lot of walks and leads Detroit with nine home runs on the season. However, he’s also got a strikeout rate of 26.4% so there will be some opportunities for Diamondbacks pitchers to take advantage of the holes in his swing.
Kerry Carpenter as emerged as a left-handed platoon bat in Detroit’s outfield. 116 of his 128 plate appearances this season have been against righties, where he’s batting .295 with eight doubles, two triples, and five home runs. The Diamondbacks will be starting two right-handers in the series.
After an encouraging second half last season, former Sun Devil great and No. 1 overall pick and Spencer Torkelson is off to a very slow start in 2024. He’s hitting .219 with just two home runs. Torkelson is still a year removed from a 31 home run season, so he’s still a dangerous bat.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Ketel Marte continues to pace the Arizona lineup, batting .290 with a team-leading nine home runs. He carries a 15-game hitting streak into this series.
Joc Pederson has been even better than advertised as the team’s designated hitter against right-handed pitching. He’s hitting .290 with eight doubles and four home runs in 114 PA when holding the platoon advantage.
First baseman Christian Walker is quietly having another excellent season. His .264/.372/.447 output is right there with his last two seasons at the plate, but the underlying data on his batted ball metrics suggest he’s hitting the ball better than the numbers say. His barrel rate ranks in the 95th percentile amongst qualified major league hitters.
Bullpen
Depending on the situation, Arizona’s bullpen may have the advantage. Detroit’s most reliable reliever has been Jason Foley, who has a 2.08 ERA and 10 saves in 19 appearances. The rest of their bullpen has been a mixed bag from a win probability standpoint, with their other qualified relievers having a shutdown to meltdown ratio of 1.5 or less. Alex Lange, the long time closer for the Tigers has been demoted in favor of Foley. Former Diamondback Andrew Chafin leads Detroit in holds with five.
While Arizona’s bullpen ranks 26th in Win Probability Added, their current bullpen has fared much better. Ryan Thompson has been excellent for the Diamondbacks, with a 1.06 ERA and a 10/1 shutdown to meltdown ratio. Joe Mantiply sneakily has had a solid year, with a 3.12 ERA and the second highest shutdown to meltdown ratio at 8/3. Closer Paul Sewald has been solid since returning from the injured list, with an ERA of 3.00 and converted both save opportunities. Kevin Ginkel has been struggling of late, allowing runs in three of his last four appearances and blowing two leads.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks and Arizona Cardinals for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
