The Diamondbacks are on the verge of being swept by the Baltimore Orioles after dropping the first two games. However, with Zac Gallen set to start the series finale, they can salvage the final game and finish with their first winning road trip of the 2024 season. They will need a vintage Gallen start to beat one of the best lineups in baseball.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!In 2023, the Diamondbacks ace was excellent following a loss. In 18 such starts, he pitched to a 2.49 ERA with 119 strikeouts and 16 walks while averaging more than six innings a start. Gallen hasn’t been quite as good in 2024, with only three starts following a loss. He has a 3.38 ERA with 19 strikeouts and just four walks in those three starts, with a 1.50 WHIP due to allowing 20 hits in 16 innings. They’ll need a performance similar to what he did in these situations in 2023.
For the type of performance the Diamondbacks could be looking for, it’s likely in the neighborhood of a quality start and going six, if not seven, innings. They’ll be down a few arms, with Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson both pitching in three of the last four days, and Paul Sewald had a very stressful ninth inning Saturday, so pitching deep into this game is a must for Gallen.
The main concern with Zac Gallen in 2024 has been a declining fastball, as the pitch is losing both velocity and vertical movement. His four-seamer averages 92.5 MPH, down a tick and a half from his 2022 peak of 94.1 MPH. According to Statcast, his fastball now averages just 0.3 inches of vertical break compared to the average fastball grouping with similar velocity and spin. That’s significantly down from the 0.8 mark from 2023 and 1.1 from 2022. That’s reduced the margin of error on his fastball command, although Gallen typically is excellent at commanding his four-seamer. When he misses in the heart of the strike zone, that’s when he’s been hit hard.
Zac Gallen’s arsenal relies on his ability to fill the zone with fastballs, then turn to his curveball, slider, cutter, and changeup. The curveball and slider have been excellent swing-and-miss offerings, with 43.7% and 45.8% of the swings against his curveball and slider coming up empty against the Diamondbacks ace. That is a sign of his ability to adapt to the stuff that he has and learn new ways to attack hitters.
He’ll need to be careful when to be aggressive with the four-seamer, as the Orioles are aggressive early in counts. Baltimore ranks 11th in the percentage of pitches swung at in the first or second pitch of the at-bat, and they’re very successful at doing damage on those pitches as they rank third in MLB with a .611 slugging percentage. Gallen must be the aggressor in these at-bats, but has to be mindful that the team he’s facing can match that aggression.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks and Arizona Cardinals for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
