Arizona State will start conference play today versus Stanford. The Sun Devils are in the midst of their worst season since Bobby Hurley took over as head coach. The Sun Devils are currently ranked 119th in KenPom and are one of the worst offensive teams in the country. They are on the verge of waving goodbye to their tournament hopes. So, as we enter Pac-12 play for the final time ever, let’s look at each Pac-12 team coming out of non-conference play.
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Arizona is the only team ranked in the top 25 from the Pac-12. That’s right, no other Pac-12 team is ranked. The Wildcats were ranked 1 before the holidays but lost to Purdue and Florida Atlantic, dropping them from the top spot. Arizona’s only good win this year is beating Duke early in the season. They destroyed all their lower-level opponents, so honestly, they look like the class of the Pac-12 and a possible Final Four team.
The Wildcats have five players averaging double-digit points. Former North Carolina star Caleb Love leads them with 16.5 points per game. Keshad Johnson and Oumar Bello each average 13. Pelle Larson averages 12.6, and Kylan Boswell averages 12. The Wildcats are 2nd in the country in points per game and second in rebounds. They are a top-three team in KenPom and ranked in the top six in both defensive and offensive categories. Arizona is a threat, but can they carry the Pac-12?
Colorado
Colorado is also 9-2 like Arizona, but they have no big wins on their resume. Their best win was over a 9-2 Miami team, who at the time was ranked but aren’t anymore. They have losses to unranked Florida State and #15 Colorado State. Colorado had a very weak non-conference schedule and didn’t take advantage, so they aren’t ranked.
The Buffaloes are led by the duo of KJ Simpson and Tristan da Silva. SImposn averages 20 points, while da Silva averages 15. Their other star, Cody Williams, has been injured since December 3rd with a wrist injury. J’Vonne Hadley averages 10 for them as well. Colorado is the best shooting team in the country. They lead the league in field goal percentage (52%) and are top-ten in 3-point percentage (40.7). KenPom has them ranked 23rd. The Buffaloes have the offense to get them into the tournament, but their lack of big wins could hurt their seeding.
Utah
Utah is actually a decent team this year. They are 9-2 but have a big win over BYU. Their only losses are to #3 Houston and unranked but talented St. Johns. The rest of their schedule was cake, but they are headed into Pac-12 play with six straight wins. Again, however, a 1-2 tier-one record keeps them out of the top 25.
Center Branden Carlson leads the Utes with 17 points per game. The 7-footer has been a menace down low for teams. Guard Gabe Marsden averages 14.2 points per game and is their best three-point shooter. Carlson is the key, though, for this team. He’s a great three-point shooter, limits fouling, and is just a do-everything player for the Utes. The only issue for Utah is they have no statistical category that they are elite in. Their best category is the 3-point percentage, in which they are ranked 29th in the country. KenPom has them ranked 31st. I don’t know if they can sustain it, but they’ve looked decent to start the year.
Washington State
Washington State is the last 9-2 team in the Pac-12, but they are also the only one without a good win. They don’t have a single Power 5 win, and their only win versus a team in the high level of D1 is Boise State. They have had maybe the easiest schedule in all of the Pac-12 so far. With losses to Mississippi State and Santa Clara, it is very clear that WSU is not as good as its record states.
The duo of Isaac Jones and Myles Rice leads the Cougars with 15 points per game each. Andrej Jakimovski averages ten as well. Jones and Jakimovski lead the team in rebounds with seven a game, and Jones is a 63% shooter. The Cougars are a solid defensive team but one of the country’s worst offensive teams. The only offensive stat this team has going for them is their decent field goal percentage. KenPom backs up this claim as the Cougars are ranked 81st offensively and 64th overall. The Cougars will most likely get exposed versus Utah and Colorado this weekend.
Oregon
Oregon is 9-3 this year but technically leads the Pac-12 because they played a conference game yesterday and beat USC. However, the Ducks had a rough non-conference play. They had good wins versus Georgia and Michigan, but neither of those teams is elite or even great this year. Not to mention, they have had very bad losses to Santa Clara and Syracuse this year. Their other loss is an 8-point loss to an Alabama team that was ranked then.
The Ducks have six players averaging double-digits, which is actually insane. Jackson Shelstad leads the team with 14 points per game. Jermaine Cousinard averages 13, while Kario Oquendo averages 11.5. The issue for the Ducks is injuries. N’Faly Dante scored 16 in the first game of the season but went down with a hamstring and hasn’t played since. Center Nate Bittle averaged 13 through the first three games before going down with a wrist injury and isn’t expected to return this year. Finally, Jesse Zarzuela, who averaged 10 through the first five games, hurt his ankle and is out for the season. It’s been a rough go with injuries for the Ducks, which is why it’s hard to trust them.
The Ducks are ranked 47th in KenPom, but their stats don’t show it. They aren’t ranked higher than 80th in any statistical category. So, I do not believe the Ducks will be a threat this year.
Washington
Washington is 8-3, but unlike every team above them, they have a signature win this season. Earlier this month, they upset #7 Gonzaga 78-73 to put the Huskies on the map. They also have a win over Xavier. However, they had a really rough time versus the Mountain West this year. The Huskies lost to Nevada, San Diego State, and Colorado State, all of which are top MWC teams. However, those losses were enough to keep Washington without even a vote for the AP Top 25.
Keion Brooks and Sahvir Wheeler lead the Huskies with 20 and 16 points per game respectively. Moses Wood and Koren Johnson each average 11 as well. They are also one of the best assisting teams in the country. UW is ranked in the top 50 in both assists and field goal percentage. KenPom has the Huskies ranked 53rd, with a top-50 offense. Washington has some good wins, but they need to have a great conference play to be considered for the tournament.
Oregon State
Oregon State has an 8-4 record with maybe the worst eight wins in the entire conference. I couldn’t even tell you who their best win was because none of them were good. They also just started conference play yesterday with a loss to UCLA. However, they also have losses to Nebraska, Baylor, and Pitt. All three losses were in blowouts, so they never looked like a good team.
The Beavers have three guys averaging over 10 points, but none more so than guard Jordan Pope, who is averaging 16.6. Dexter Akanno and Tyler Bilodeau are next, averaging 12 and 11 points per game, respectively. They have two solid rebounders and one guy who averages more than 2.5 assists per game. KenPom also believes that they are not good. The ranking system has them at 197th, 70 spots lower than Arizona State. They started conference play terribly and will continue to fall as we get later in the season.
UCLA
UCLA is usually a national powerhouse and one of the bright spots of the Pac-12, but they had a disastrous non-conference season. The Bruins currently sit at 6-6 but are 1-0 in conference play with their win over Oregon State. Before the Oregon State game, UCLA was on a four-game losing streak. The Bruins lost to every good team they played these past three months, including #10 Marquette, #13 Gonzaga, Villanova, Ohio State, and Maryland. They also have one really bad loss to Cal State Northridge. Oregon State is probably their best win, and even the Beavers are ranked 197th in KenPom. Four of their six wins are against teams ranked in the bottom 15 in all college basketball and one D2 school.
Sebastian Mack and Adem Bona have led the Bruins with 14.5 and 12.2 points per game, respectively. Dylan Andrews has averaged 12, while Lazar Stefanovic is averaging 10. They are ranked near the bottom in most statistical categories, including rebounds, field goal percentage, and points per game. KenPom still has the Bruins ranked at 82nd, but that’s only because they have a top-40 defense compared to the 141st-ranked offense. It’s been bad for UCLA this year, but they still are a team that can dominate the Pac-12.
USC
USC is also 6-6 but lost their first conference game to Oregon. The Trojans had a good win in Kansas State in the first game of the season but had some really bad losses in UC Irvine and Long Beach State. They also have lost to Oklahoma, Gonzaga, and Auburn. It’s not as bad as UCLA because of their couple of wins against Seton Hall and K-State, but it’s not great for the Trojans.
The Trojans have Boogie Ellis, who has averaged 18 this year. They also have Isaiah Collier, who is averaging 15.7. Besides those two, they really don’t have anyone else except for Bronny James, who is still working back from his heart issue, but the son of the King could make splashes in conference play. They aren’t terrible in any statistical category but don’t have a top-100 stat either. This allows KenPom to rank them 48th with a top 70 offense and defense. USC will probably make the tournament again but continue to be an 8-9 seeded team.
Stanford
The Cardinal is having its normal average year. They are 5-5 with no good wins and losses to Northern Iowa, Santa Clara, and Michigan. Stanford has never been a basketball school, so this isn’t that surprising. Their best win is against San Diego, who beat ASU. They just don’t play anyone in non-conference play.
Maxime Raymaund averages 15 points per game, while Michael Jones averages 13. The Cardinal also has two other players who average 12, Brandon Angel and Spencer Jones. However, Jones hasn’t played since early December. Stanford actually has a really good offense this year, ranking in the top 60 in FG%, Assists, and Assist%. However, their defense is not good. KenPom, however, still has the Cardinal ranked in the top 100, with an 87th-ranked offense and 110th-ranked defense. The Cardinal might surprise some people this season, but it will be a long shot for them to even sniff the tournament.
Cal
Finally, we have Cal, who is easily the worst team in the Pac-12, and it’s not really close. The Golden Bears are 4-7 with losses to UTEP, Montana State, Pacific, and Tulane. They also have lost to SDSU, Butler, and Ole Miss. They nearly lost to St. Thomas (MN) and UC San Diego. It’s just not been a good year for Cal, who some thought might take a step up this year.
The offense is not the problem for Cal, as they have three players who average more than 16 points per game. Those players are guard Jaylon Tyson, Forward Fardaws Aimaq, and Jalen Cone. They also have three other guys who average over seven. Cal is also a solid rebounding team, with three guys averaging more than six rebounds a game. They are a top three-point shooting and offensive rebound team, but that’s it. KenPom doesn’t agree with me about them being the worst team in the Pac-12. The rankings have Cal at 161st, 36 spots higher than Oregon State. Their top 110 offense is keeping them afloat. The Bears might just be fighting not to be the worst team in the conference this year.
As you can tell, the Pac-12 is incredibly weak this year. Only two teams are ranked in the top 30. Only three teams are in the projected field of 64. And two of those three are only eight seeds. To put that into perspective, the other top 5 conferences all have five or more teams in the field. The Pac-12 is easily the worst power conference, and Arizona State needs to take advantage of the weak conference to have even a semblance of a chance to get in.
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