The Diamondbacks starting rotation has been the major storyline for the 2024 season. While the health of the pitchers has been much discussed this season, the one pitcher who has anchored this unit has been Brandon Pfaadt. In his second season, the right-hander has taken a huge step forward and has kept the team afloat.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!On the surface level, no one would consider a pitcher with a 4-6 record and a 3.74 ERA as the savior of a rotation for a team in position for a playoff spot. However, looking beyond the surface, he’s pitched beyond the numbers. Pfaadt averages six innings a start, a number significant for the right-hander since it’s his goal every time out. He’s cleared that mark in 15 of his 20 starts this season.
Looking at the rotation’s performance on Baseball Reference, he leads the Diamondbacks with 11 quality starts, a 55% quality start percentage, and an average game score of 55.1 amongst pitchers with more than 13 starts. Not only is he giving the team length, but the quality of these starts are exceptional.
It’s not all that surprising that Pfaadt has stepped up when the team needed him most again. He already showed that ability in the postseason, delivering 5 2/3 scoreless innings in a “must-win” Game 3 of the National League Championship Series in a game the Diamondbacks came back to win 2-1. That’s why the team had him a lock for the starting rotation entering spring.
It hasn’t been smooth sailing for Pfaadt in his second year in Arizona. He’s had starts where he’s pitched well but got undermined by a big home run in the sixth or seventh inning. That was a big theme for him in June, but he’s gotten past those hiccups recently. If not for getting struck in the ankle by a batted ball against the Padres, he might be on a four-start quality start streak. Over his past four starts, he’s pitched to a 0.77 ERA with 25 strikeouts and only three walks in 23 1/3 innings.
The biggest area of improvement will be locating his sweeper more consistently. While opponents are batting just .177 on the pitch, nine of the 14 home runs he’s allowed this year have come against that pitch. As a result of the home runs, Statcast has assigned a run value of -6 on the year. It’s not due to the lack of quality on the pitch, as it has a 34.9% whiff rate and accounts for nearly half of his strikeouts.
He gets into trouble when the sweeper lands in the middle third of the strike from a vertical standpoint (thigh to belt). 92 of the 501 sweepers he’s thrown (18.4%) have ended up in that location, which is right around the league average of 18.3%. Six of the nine homers allowed on the sweeper have been in that area of the zone. That’s often why his starts unraveled quickly, and the opposing team clipped him for three runs out of nowhere. With better sweeper command moving forward, Pfaadt could take the next step and develop into a top 10 pitcher in the National League.
Now that Brandon Pfaadt is emerging a key rotation piece for the Diamondbacks, they have a chance to go on a run in the season’s final two-plus months and try to hold onto that Wild Card spot. Ryne Nelson has put together quality starts of late, stabilizing the rotation over the past two months. Add in a healthy Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo RodrÃguez, and Jordan Montgomery, Arizona not only has the pitching to get into the postseason but also make another deep postseason run.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arizona Cardinals, and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
