The Phoenix Suns (1-1) take on the Dallas Mavericks (1-0) in their first home game of the 2024-25 season tonight.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Phoenix just played last night, squandering a 22-point lead on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers, who went on to win the game 123-116. Phoenix’s turnover problems from last season have carried over, as the Suns had 17 turnovers last night after having 22 turnovers in their season-opening win over the Los Angeles Clippers Wednesday.
The Suns have gotten better in two offensive areas from last year already with ball movement and attempting 3-pointers. Phoenix is currently averaging 30 assists per game and 37.5 3-pointers attempted, up from 27 assists last season and 32.6 3-pointers attempted per game. These have been two points of emphasis by new coach Mike Budenholzer, and the Suns have shown to do them well in some spurts, but have still found themselves limited, as they did yesterday, because of turnovers and not being able to play in transition consistently.
Defensively, the Suns have also been really hot and cold with more bad stretches than good. The Lakers shot 9-for-13 (69.2%) from 3 in the second half, as the Suns are still trying to find the right lineups to use.
The early returns on the starting 5 of Tyus Jones, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkić have been particularly underwhelming, as this 5-man lineup has an offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) of 90.6 and a defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) of 131.8, making for an abysmal net rating (point differential per 100 possessions) of -41.6. For reference, Phoenix’s main starting lineup last season of Booker, Beal, Grayson Allen, Durant and Nurkić had a net rating of 11.1 (124.5 offensive and 113.4 defensive).
With that said, the Suns depth has been much improved, and Budenholzer has tried a lot of different lineups early on with 43 different five-man lineup combinations over the first two games.
Phoenix, especially its defense, will face a very tough test against the Mavericks, who made it to the NBA Finals a season ago and added Klay Thompson in the offseason. Dallas defeated the San Antonio Spurs 120-109 Thursday, as Thompson shot 6-for-10 from 3 in his debut and had 22 points. Luka Dončić nearly had a triple double with 28 points on a 9-of-25 shooting, 10 rebounds and eight assists, while Dereck Lively came off the bench and contributed 15 points, 11 rebounds and six assists.
After having a tough time containing Anthony Davis (35 points, eight rebounds, four assists and two blocks), Phoenix will once again be challenged inside by one of the best center rotations in the league in Daniel Gafford and Lively. That’s before even mentioning trying to stop Dončić, Kyrie Irving and Thompson. With the limited defense Phoenix has in its starting lineup, the Suns will have to show that they are up for the challenge and can keep up with Dallas’ marquee players on both sides of the ball.
Phoenix would like to see Booker get rolling at home after he has only averaged 19 points through two games and shot 9-for-21 from the floor last night.
The Mavericks, who now have former Suns coach Frank Vogel on staff, won the season series 2-1 over the Suns last season. This series featured a 50-point game by Dončić in a win over the Suns on Christmas and a 46-point outing by Booker in a blowout road win for the Suns in January. Dončić then notched 41 points to help the Mavs close out the series on top in February.
Bradley Beal (right elbow soreness) and Grayson Allen (personal) are questionable for the Suns’ home opener. Josh Okogie (right hamstring strain) remains out, as does Mavericks guard Dante Exum (right wrist surgery).
Local Game Information
Start Time: 7:00 p.m. MST
Location: Footprint Center
TV Channel: AZ Family/3TV
Radio: Arizona Sports 98.7 FM, La Mejor 106.5 FM
Stream: Suns Live (click for more info)
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) October 26, 2024
Betting Odds
Line: DAL -3
O/U: 230.5
Injury Report
Phoenix Suns: Grayson Allen (personal) QUESTIONABLE | Bradley Beal (right elbow soreness) QUESTIONABLE | Josh Okogie (right hamstring strain) OUT
Dallas Mavericks: Dante Exum (right wrist surgery) OUT
Starters (Projected)
Phoenix Suns: Tyus Jones, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, Jusuf Nurkić
Dallas Mavericks: Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford
Five Keys to Game for Suns
- Limiting turnovers
- Don’t allow Luka to go off
- Rebounding
- Playing in transition
- Imposing will inside
Prediction
Mavericks 121 – Suns 112
Dallas poses way too many problems for the Suns’ defense, and that combined with the offensive lapses Phoenix has had does not make for a good recipe heading into the game. The Suns need a much better outing for Jusuf Nurkić tonight and can’t be solely reliant on Kevin Durant on both sides of the ball, especially against a team like Dallas. This will be a good test to see how Budenholzer makes adjustments, but Phoenix also just simply has to do a better job of taking care of the ball and not allow for drastic momentum swings like we have seen in its first two contests.
The Suns have had too many struggles early on and going against a team that just went to the Finals a season ago and has a superstar like Dončić makes it very hard to pick them in this game. I have the Mavericks coming out on top by a decent margin.
Last Meeting (Feb. 22, 2024)
Luka Dončić scores 41 points, Mavericks win 123-113 over Suns
Injury Report
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Brendan Mau is a senior writer covering the Phoenix Suns and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @Brendan_Mau
