Paul Sewald has endured a rough month of July. In 11 appearances, he’s allowed 10 runs in 9 2/3 innings and converted only five of nine save opportunities. All four blown saves have led to losses, which stings because the rest of the team seems to be playing well. Despite a solid July overall, with a 14-8 record, the Diamondbacks should have another two to three wins.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!A big reason why Sewald has struggled is he no longer has a swing-and-miss fastball. While he’s never lit up the radar gun, the arm slot and above-average vertical break relative to his velocity and spin numbers have generated whiffs at the top of the strike zone. In 2024, the pitch has declined just one MPH from 92.2 to 91.2 MPH. While the movement profile is relatively the same, the whiff rate has dropped from 28.4% to 21.1%.
Not only are batters swinging and missing less but the fastball has also been hit hard. Half of the fastballs put into play against Sewald have had an exit velocity of at least 95.0 MPH or greater. For a pitcher with a 65/35 usage split in favor of the four-seamer, that’s also a very troubling sign. Batters are hitting .254 with a .463 slugging percentage against the heater in 2024, compared to .220 and .323 respectively in 2023. As a result, the run value on the pitch has dropped from +7 to -1 and from +1.2 to -0.3 per 100 thrown.
As a two-pitch reliever, his fastball going from a plus pitch to merely average quality is a huge concern. His strikeout and walk rates are excellent at 26.4% and 3.8% respectively, but the swing-and-miss and quality of contact against him is where the results have declined. He’s an aggressive strike-thrower, but no longer has the fastball to pitch that way. He’s gotten burned when he misses in the middle third in the strike zone from a vertical perspective, as the game-tying hits came on that location.
The Diamondbacks bullpen is set up for him to get the final three outs of a game, but if he can’t get the job done then the team is in a bad position. That puts them in a dilemma, pray that Sewald can locate his diminished fastball better or have to give up a prospect haul to acquire a closer. A.J. Puk has closing experience, with 15 saves last season, but that’s not what they brought him for. Out of the relievers on the current 26-man roster, he’s the only arm who should be even considered as a fallback option.
The Diamondbacks are linked to Tanner Scott in the trade market, although with six teams competing for the All-Star closer’s services, it could turn into a bidding war that general manager Mike Hazen will be comfortable paying up for.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arizona Cardinals, and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
