The Diamondbacks have cut the Dodgers’ lead in the National League West down to three games with 47 games to go. However, that’s not the only major story line involving the two teams. The other is the NL’s Most Valuable Player race, which has now become a two-horse race between Shohei Ohtani and Ketel Marte. The race between the two is close enough that the possibility that Marte can take home the award is still strong.
There isn’t a great all-encapsulating metric that properly measures the value a baseball player brings to his team, but the best public-facing metric we can use is Wins Abve Replacement (WAR). There are two commonly cited metrics, one coming from Baseball Reference (bWAR) and the other from FanGraphs (fWAR). Due to the differing calculations that go into each metric, that can occasionally cause a massive difference, I prefer to take the average between the two.
If we look at the two players, this where they rank amongst National League players in terms of WAR.
- Ohtani: 5.9 bWAR (2nd), 5.7 fWAR (1st), 5.8 aWAR (1st)
- Marte: 6.0 bWAR (1st), 5.3 fWAR (3rd), 5.65 aWAR (2nd)
As you can see right here, it is a very close race. Despite Ohtani being arguably the best hitter on the planet in 2024, the fact he isn’t running away with the race speaks to fact that he’s a DH and how well the all-around value Marte has put up. At 34 home runs and 32 stolen bases, he’s on pace for just the sixth 40/40 season in MLB history. Ironically enough, only two of those five seasons have resulted in an MVP award (Jose Canseco 1988, Ronald Acuña Jr. 2023).
The biggest case for Marte starts with the fact he plays a position, and plays it at an elite level. While his overall batting numbers do not compare to Ohtani, he’s been one of the best defensive players at the position. His +11 defensive runs saved and +7 outs above average rank second and fourth amongst National League second basemen, where he’s likely to be a finalist for the Gold Glove Award. Second base is not a premier position like shortstop or center field, but it comes with a positive positional run value.
The strong defense elevates a top-end offensive value. Marte ranks fourth in the NL in batting average (.298), third in home runs (29), eighth in on-base percentage (.368), third in slugging percentage (.559), third in OPS (.926), and third in OPS+ (157). While he doesn’t lead in any hitting metrics, he’s near the top of most of them. He’ll need to be consistently in the top five across the board offensively in order for the defensive value to keep him in the race.
The best chance for Marte to pull off the MVP Award will not only require him to be the clear-cut leader in WAR over Ohtani, but also the Diamondbacks’ success will play a role in it. Not only will he need to continue his torrid second-half stretch, but his team will likely need to finish first in the National League West division to add a narrative behind his case.
Should Marte win the MVP award this season, he would be the first-ever Diamondback to do so. In their first 26 years of existence, Arizona has five Cy Young awards, one Rookie of the Year award, and two Manager of the Year awards.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arizona Cardinals, and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
