Thanks to a 17-8 July, the Diamondbacks have drastically improved their playoff chances. They enter August holding onto the third Wild Card and are within spitting distance of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West division, just five games back from a team that was the consensus pick to take the division.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Entering August 1, the Diamondbacks have a 51.3% chance to make the postseason according to Baseball Reference, and 58.4% on FanGraphs. That is a massive jump compared to where they were on July 2, when they were sitting at 12.0% and 22.4% respectively. On both sites, the team’s postseason chances have improved by more than 35%.
Part of that has been the Braves and the Dodgers coming back to the pack after it looked like in early June that they would cruise into the postseason. But as the two teams have been wobbly of late due to injuries mounting on their respective clubs, the Diamondbacks, Padres, and the Mets have all quickly closed in.
What has helped the Diamondbacks quickly jump towards the top of the Wild Card race has been their offense. Arizona led all of Major League Baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging, with a team triple slash of .283/.353/.499. FanGraphs rates their entire offense to be 34% better than league average, which means the team collectively is hitting like All-Star center fielder Jarren Duran.
Fueling that recent offensive surge has been just the entire lineup getting hot at the same time. Seven of the 10 players who logged at least 50 plate appearances posted a wRC+ of at least 124. Eugenio Suárez led the team with a 206 mark, which ranked seventh in MLB in July. Ketel Marte, the team’s lone All-Star, also was hot in the month, hitting .357 with seven homers, 23 RBI, and a 186 wRC+.
Like with Suárez, Corbin Carroll has shown signs of busting out. While he only hit .221 for the month, he slugged six home runs, including a walk-off shot on Monday in a win that could make the difference at the end. He’s still not 100% back from his sophomore slump, but now the bat has perked up to the point where he’s actively contributing to wins on offense again.
The Achilles heel for the Diamondbacks is their pitching. While youngsters Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson have stepped up to provide some stability in the middle of the rotation, the team still awaits the returns of Eduardo RodrÃguez and Merrill Kelly this month. RodrÃguez has not pitched since March 19, when he suffered a left lat strain in a Spring Training game against the Chicago Cubs. Kelly made four starts to the season before straining the teres major muscle in his rotator cuff in April and has been sidelined since.
The additional issue will be what they decide to do with struggling left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery has been especially brutal pitching at his home park of Chase Field, where he has a 8.39 ERA and batters have a .368/.427/.579 slash against him. Right-handed hitters have really killed him, speaking to the lack of an effective fastball and changeup combination this season. Once the rotation is healthy, they need to figure out what to do with him in order to put themselves in the best position to compete. Contracts and past success should not factor in the decision.
The bullpen is still somewhat unsettled despite a couple of savvy trades by general manager Mike Hazen in the final week heading into the deadline. The biggest issue is figuring out what’s wrong with closer Paul Sewald, as he’s badly struggled in the month of July. The addition of A.J. Puk and Dylan Floro adds more options to how manager Torey Lovullo can deploy his relievers from the sixth inning on. Puk comes with closing experience in 2023, should the team decide to make a move at the closer role. However, Lovullo has not indicated that will be the case.
The Diamondbacks control their destiny when it comes to establishing favorable tiebreakers in the National League Wild Card race, and possibly Western division too. There are some key series ahead, with one each left against the Pirates, Mets, Dodgers, and Padres before the end of the season. Those will all be must-win series, especially since the Padres are the last team on the schedule and a playoff spot could be on the line in Game 162.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arizona Cardinals, and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
