The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The game will be televised nationally on FOX, with first pitch at 4:00 P.M. MST. Wrigley Field has been a welcoming ballpark for Arizona since the start of the 2022 season, with a major league-best 7-2 record. The Padres and Dodgers have a 7-3 record each.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!A win would clinch the Diamondbacks’ fifth series win in their last six, the other being a four-game split with the Atlanta Braves. It would also all but clinch the tiebreaker over Chicago, thanks to a superior intradivision record. Arizona is 19-14 vs. the NL West while Chicago is 12-21 vs. the NL Central.
A win would also mark the first time in the 2024 season that they are three games over .500 on the season. Twice they’ve been two games over, on April 1 and July 14. They lost both games. They’ll try to avoid continuing that trend against the Cubs.
Zac Gallen looks to rebound from a tough stretch
For Arizona to get into the postseason, they’ll need their ace to get back to form with the sooner, the better. In his last three starts, Gallen has allowed 15 runs (13 earned) over 13 innings on 20 hits, five walks, and just nine strikeouts. He’s given up two home runs, a three-run homer to Adam Duvall and a grand slam to Kevin Kiermaier, each one serving as the big blow that short-circuited his last two starts.
Gallen has proven to be capable of shaking off rough outings. That was on display in the postseason last year when he rebounded from a tough NLCS to pitch well in the World Series. A strong start by their ace should put the Diamondbacks in good position to win this game, as they are 43-9 when allowing five runs or fewer as a team. The .827 win percentage ranks second in Major League Baseball, behind just the Philadelphia Phillies.
The last time Gallen pitched at Wrigley Field, he threw a complete-game shutout in a Diamondbacks’ 1-0 win over the Cubs.
Diamondbacks’ top hitters on fire
The Diamondbacks have won 11 of their past 16 games. Much of that is due to an offense that’s come alive. Since June 29, Arizona is tops in the majors in batting average (.285), on-base percentage (.367), OPS (.840), runs (101), and walks (69). With the offense capable of putting up big numbers, that’s taken stress off a pitching staff that has struggled at times this season.
The Diamondbacks have four hitters in their regular lineup that have hit at least .300 since June 29:
- 2B Ketel Marte: 19-for-53 (.358), .469 OBP, .491 SLG, 1 2B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 11 BB, 4 SO
- 1B Christian Walker: 22-for-62 (.355), .467 OBP, .661 SLG, 4 2B, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 13 BB
- C Gabriel Moreno: 15-for-44 (.341), .431 OBP, .500 SLG, 4 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 7 SO
- 3B Eugenio Suárez: 17-for-55 (.306), .406 OBP, .600 SLG, 4 2B, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 9 BB
All four hitters are critical to the offensive success of the club. Ketel Marte was the team’s lone All-Star, starting the game at second base, so his production isn’t all that surprising. Christian Walker’s success at the plate drives the team’s offense, leading the team with 22 home runs and 68 RBI. When Walker drives in a run, the Diamondbacks are 30-10. We’ve also noted Suárez’s hot start to the month of July, as he provides another run-producing option towards the bottom of the order.
When a lineup has four hot hitters like that, it makes it tough for the opposing starting pitcher to navigate through the lineup. Add in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is tied for the most multihit games since June 6, and this team can put up runs in a hurry. They’ll need that offense at Wrigley Field, which will either play big or small depending on how the wind blows. Early runs would also help Gallen settle into his start.
Veteran Kyle Hendricks struggling in 2024
Once a key arm in the Cubs’ 2016 World Championship run, Kyle Hendricks has really struggled in 2024. In 17 appearances, 12 starts, he is 2-7 with a 6.78 ERA. He had already been demoted to the bullpen, but the team’s injury woes have forced him back in the rotation.
Advanced metrics paint him as a better pitcher than his 6.78 ERA, caused by a very low 60.1% strand rate, but not as a pitcher who’s been successful either. His xERA sits at 4.99, which ranks in the 13th percentile amongst qualifying major league pitchers on Baseball Savant. xERA takes into account the quality of contact of batted balls, along with strikeout and walk numbers.
Hendricks isn’t necessarily giving up loud contact in terms of exit velocity on a whole, but hitters have been able to string together hits off him. His .290 xBA ranks in the fifth percentile, with hitters hammering both of his fastballs. Against the sinker, batters are hitting .357 with a .504 slugging percentage. However, he also mixes in a changeup as well to keep hitters off-balance. The curveball has also been a surprisingly effective pitch, with Baseball Savant crediting it with a +4 run value compared to -14 on fastballs and -7 on the changeup.
Hendricks faced the Diamondbacks on April 16, allowing seven runs in 4 1/3 innings on five hits, two home runs, and two walks in a 12-11, extra-inning win by Arizona.
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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arizona Cardinals, and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB
