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When should the Diamondbacks expect to have a healthy starting rotation in 2024?

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen faces the Miami Marlins at Chase Field

One of the biggest problems for the 2024 Diamondbacks has been the health of their starting rotation. Due to injuries, the unit has never been at full strength at any point in the season. Eduardo Rodríguez went down with a left let strain nine days before Opening Day. Merrill Kelly just lasted four starts before suffering a teres major strain in his right shoulder on April 20. Then finally, Zac Gallen strained his hamstring in a start against the Mets on May 30.

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As a result of these injuries, they’ve had to assemble a patchwork rotation of younger starters and fill one rotation spot with Scott McGough as an opener multiple times. They’ve gotten by in June, with a record of 9-4 as they take on a softer portion of their schedule despite a starting rotation that hasn’t performed up to its standard.

Gallen will be the first starting pitcher of the three to return from the injured list. He threw a 37-pitch bullpen on Friday and is set to throw a 45-pitch simulated game with three up/downs on Tuesday. With such a low pitch count, it’s likely the Diamondbacks stretch him out further before activating Gallen. The best case scenario for his return could be around June 28 against the Oakland Athletics.

Rodríguez appears to be the second pitcher that will come back. He’s out to 105 feet in his throwing program and is scheduled for an MRI to make sure his shoulder is healing correctly. There has been no update on the results of that MRI as of Saturday. After being shut down a full month before restarting his throwing program and not having pitched in a game since March, it’s going to be a long buildup once he’s on the mound again. With the All-Star break coming in four weeks, the Diamondbacks will be hard-pressed to have the left-hander back by then.

Kelly has also started his throwing program but is only out to 65-90 feet without much to update beyond that. He’s farther behind than Rodríguez, so it’s unlikely he’ll be back before the All-Star break next month. Kelly is also facing a lengthy ramp-up when he gets back on the mound, so the most optimal timeline could have him back by the July 30 trade deadline. Lovullo has since confirmed to Jack Sommers from Inside the Diamondbacks that the veteran right-hander will not be back before the All-Star Break.

Going beyond just the return date, both Rodríguez and Kelly are dealing with shoulder injuries. Given their age, it can be the type of injury that can linger. The Diamondbacks can ill-afford to have both starters at less than their best, and be able to jump ahead of the pack in the playoff race. 13 of the 15 teams in the National League are within three games of a playoff spot entering play on June 15.

The good news is Jordan Montgomery has pitched a competitive game in seven of his 10 starts despite the 6.58 ERA and Brandon Pfaadt is taking the next step as a starter, with a 4.32 ERA and averaging six innings per start. Ryne Nelson has started to put together some solid starts, clearing the sixth inning in three of his past four starts. The Diamondbacks rotation is slowly coming together and if healthy, could make some noise in the National League playoffs like last season. The question will be if that rotation will be healthy enough to get the job done, or if they need to pick up a starter at the trade deadline to solidify it.

Can the 2024 Diamondbacks survive with a patchwork rotation?

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Michael McDermott covers the Arizona Diamondbacks and more for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X via @MichaelMcDMLB

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