Why one long shot could ruin every betting slip at the Kentucky Derby

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LOUISVILLE — The 151st Kentucky Derby is here, and so is the rain at Churchill Downs — which could shake up every betting ticket by post time.

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At last, the Kentucky Derby has arrived. The stars are out, the hats are flashy, and the drinks are minty. Nothing is more thrilling though than looking at the best bets of, “the most exciting two minutes in sports”.

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— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 3, 2025

Deep Dive of the 2025 Kentucky Derby:

Favorites:

8. Journalism – (ML 3-1): The top contender in the Kentucky Derby. He won the Santa Anita Derby as he negotiated traffic in past races with magnificent fashion. He has done so in small fields, which is the biggest knock against him.

17. Sandman – (ML 6-1): The winner of the Arkansas Derby dealt with some massive frontrunners, as his  career-best Brisnet speed figure of 101 in that race shows he is in peak form. His pace can set up for a closer, especially with this distance. As a deep closer though, he needs to stay focused which is a concern. His wide turns could see him lose ground that he can’t get back from.

18. Sovereignty – (ML 5-1): Coming in at an upward pattern, he made an amazing comeback at the Fountain of Youth stakes which shows his tenacity in big races. He is a major player on Saturday.

Legitimate contenders:

9. Burnham Square – (ML 12-1): In his last race in the Bluegrass at Keeneland, Burnham Square went from last to first in a seven-horse field. He likes to run the distance, which will be a massive help.

14. Tiztastic – (ML 20-1): Steve Asmussen and company know that stamina is his greatest asset. Joel Rosario gets the nod as a jockey and will look to capitalize on that. The winner of the G2 Louisiana Derby could come into play here.

21. Baeza – (ML 12-1): His career-high 101 Beyer figure shows he is a force to be reckoned with. Jockey Flavien Prat knows this horse is fast, and has an outside chance to win it.

Long shots:

16. Coal Battle – (ML 30-1): Distance is a problem, though he can’t be dismissed as he runs respectable races. He can be used underneath in exotics.

19. Chunk of Gold (ML 30-1): Finishing second in the Louisiana Derby, this closer had an underdog story that has benefited from inside posts and ground-saving trips and has a chance to end up in the mix.

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— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 3, 2025

Final Prediction:

18 – 9 – 8 – 21

Journalism is a legit favorite, though has only proved he can move through traffic in small fields. Sovereignty had a perfect warm-up from the Florida Derby. Sandman also has late speed, while Jose Ortiz can navigate madness from the mid-pack better than anybody. Baeza is a serious contender, that can take over this race at any time. The rain could be a huge factor on Saturday though, as when it’s muddy, you have to keep an eye out for the long shots to run.

The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby will be held at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3rd, with post time being at 3:57 p.m. MST.

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— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 3, 2025

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Reporter Benjamin Bliklen covers the Arizona Diamondbacks and Arizona Cardinals for Burn City Sports. You can follow him on his X account, @BenBliklen